Facebook abandons #Socialmedia. Goes Olde School $FB, $TWTR, $GOOG, $YHOO, $MSFT, $LNKD

Facebook (Nasdaq:FB) launches mandatory video ads. That’s olde school television. you know when your watching a reasonably interesting show and suddenly these ads come on. Madison Ave Madmen call that Interruption Marketing. similar to tele-marketing which has annoyed tens of millions.

So where is the promise of social marketing. You know engaging the follower with relevant compelling offerings which have a high sell through rate. This is like watching the Swedish Bikini cheerleading team during a commercial break exhorting you to drink a particular beer while you are ignoring your girlfriend as you watch a very important football game. Very important to be emphasized.

Facebook will become no more powerful than network TV. Which right now is not very powerful at all.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective

Perfect Way to Screw Up Facebook Ads $FB, $GOOG, $TWTR, $LNKD, $YHOO,

Facebook (Nasdaq:FB) is poised to launch video ads for a reputed $2 million a day to reach everyone between 18-54. If they hang onto the business they will gross $730 million. hopefully without annoying the users.

Despite the fact it is free I’m pretty sure I don’t want to see the ads. So what if you go into your profile and change some of your settings. Age comes to mind. Tell em you’re over 55. This demographic apparently does not watch video’s. Change other aspects that makes it difficult for them to figure you out.

The ads will play automatically so watch for creative resistance from an ungrateful public who do not care to pay the bills for billionaire and multi-millionaire geeks working at Facebook.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Amazon Drones May Crash and Burn while Google Robot Trucks Deliver $AMZN, $GOOG, $TSLA, $FDX, $UPS, $DPSGY, $SAMS

Amazon.com Inc as we all know pulled a great publicity stunt and announced delivery by drone coming soon just a soon as technology and regulators allow it. A little bit too Star Trekkie for me. Consider this:

A customer lives in a high-rise condo. How do you deliver to a specific condo?

A customer has been receiving products at work because someone is always in the accept. how do you deliver to a high-rise office.

Just how many of these things will we need. Right now a delivery truck can easily take care of 200 customers during a day. Trucks are loaded at night and drivers roll in the early morning deploying as the urban traffic patterns allow. Consumer deliveries at night are not feasible.

Half hour delivery or its free is tough. Just ask any pizza operator. Or watch a pizza delivery guy in traffic ahead of you. It’s dangerous.

What about urban guerilla warfare. How many geeks and techs will hack the airwaves and pirate the shipments. If the mob can high-jack a tractor-trailer of goods the mob will learn how to high jack drones. Not to mention bored but brilliant teenagers who will just try to shoot them down.

I’m putting my money on Google with its driver-less cars. Add in some Tesla green tech and you have trucks that can deliver. The drones will be robots that can bring from truck to doorway.

Oh and there’s always the terrorists who will deliver a small but lethal package right to the Whitehouse and god only knows where else. Free shipping it beats high jacking jumbo jets and all that airport security stuff.

If you thought Apple Inc, Samsung and Google had global patent lawsuits going FedEx, UPS and DHL will not sit back and let Amazon take this one over.

#Xbox and #PS4 dogfight will exhaust each other. Situation ripe for a massive disruption. $SNE, $MFST, $AAPL, $GOOG,

Sony and Microsoft have launched their gladiator proxies in the forms of Xbox and PS4. Sales since launch seem to be even on a global basis. Brand loyalty is strong. No signs of any major defections. The product narratives are holding.

Consider this. Race fans will recognize the set up. Two strong horses running neck and neck fighting for every inch. The adrenaline surges, surges and then surges some more. One cannot let the other get ahead or its all over.

Usually the two horses cannot pace themselves and a third stalking horse comes out of nowhere, sweeps around in the last turn and makes a mad dash for the finish line leaving the two favourites eating dust.

The two are playing the same game. Corporate thinking is so us vs. them who really understand the landscape.

Possible disruptors could be Apple. The iPhone and iPad were pretty good. The app store has wide distribution. Google is just desperate the make Android work. The Chinese would love to take a run at this as well.

So sit back and watch the race. The harder the more likely they will fail.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Google still does not know where the chop sticks are. Is that Bullish or Achilles Heel $GOOG, $FB, TWTR, $BIDU, $YHOO

Google (Nasdaq:GOOG) is surging, charging and bulling; creating a lot of excitement. Longs and Bulls are making money. Today. Just remember while you guzzle victory’s champagne. Google still does not have China figured out. They still have not recovered  from what Beijing views as intransigence.

If they cannot establish a large foot print in China they will be missing a critical piece which others will capture. Global scale means global as in planet earth. Global does not exclude China. If Google can skate that one on side than $2,000 a share will be cheap.

Google does not know where the chop sticks are.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

More Reasons for Facebook’s Demise. The child’s play dynamic. $FB $LNKD $GOOG $TWIT $YHOO

On a personal note; [personal notes being the only one's that really count] I have become a grandfather for the second time. The family Facebook pages are full of baby pictures and nice family comments. There is joy in the house and all branches of the family tree.

Facebook with its vaunted advertising machine serves up advertising for an eaves trough product that blocks out falling leaves. No baby products or anything else remotely appropriate.

So special note to Mark Zuckerberg. My new-born grand-daughter does not as yet own any real estate in her own name. It will be some time before she takes an interest in property management issues.

There are lots of other compelling product offers that I and family would be willing to consider. But you seem to be missing it. Hmm $50 @ share plus. Not a candidate for the education fund. Grand Dad may take the responsibility for shorting the stock. The risk is too much for a new-born. Or is it child’s play?

I must admit to renewed insights in diapers and infant clothing.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. follow him on Twitter @financialskepti

Reasons for Facebooks Painful Demise $FB $TWIT $GOOG $YHOO $LNKD

Sterne Agee analyst Arvind Bhatia said “We think Instagram ads could ultimately command a premium to Facebook ads, although that will likely take a while,” Facebook (Nasdaq:FB) is approaching the tipping point of credibility. They have to show enormous sustainable growth and cash flow to justify a valuation north of $50.

The Sterne Agee comment is typical of Wall Street psycho-babble. OK Instagram will show some growth. But if it is a premium to Facebook, the value proposition should be clear immediately if not sooner. When you buy groceries Filet Mignon is more expensive than stewing beef. There are no arguments.

Arvind Bhatia, (if the quote from Investors Business Daily is believable) in a back-handed way is denigrating Facebook main offering. So what should the Sterne Agee clients do with Facebook?

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on Twitter @financialskepti

Microsoft’s Next CEO will be a Lawyer. Here’s how they F it up. $MSFT $GOOG $AAPL $YHOO $FB

Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) is looking for a new CEO. What do they need? A lawyer of course and here’s why. Big Tech is subject to much legal and regulatory scrutiny if not outright interference. Antitrust actions are constant. Law suits against competitors are daily events. If you develop something or buy it the competition immediately attacks it because they were working on something just like it. If  they don’t attack it you will attack them.

This has nothing to do with engineering. There are thousands of engineers. some of them are even good.

What you need is a good war-time consigliere.

Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) stole an attractive engineer from Yahoo who is playing the engineering and development card. Marissa Meyer if you must ask.

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) is post Steve Jobs but still very much in the developer super product mode.

Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) is still in the grips of its two founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin. Uber developers in their own right and employers of tens of thousands of brilliant and near brilliant engineers. They came the closest to breaking out of the mould and hiring a grey hair to help lead but they yanked the chain back recently.

Facebook (Nasdaq: FB) is still in the validation stage. Mark Zuckerberg must prove himself and validate his social media concept. But as any casual observer will notice they are spending more time on legal and regulatory issues; like it or not.

So the narrative at Microsoft is we need the next big general to lead us into battle. You can almost see the biblical imagery of an angel wielding a big ass sword slaying dragons and beasts.

The most effective leader for Microsoft would be a lawyer with good infighting instincts. The engineers you can hire and fire.

The market would be very confused because tech expects and evangelical type of CEO. A Steve Jobs who walks onto a stage holding something and fervently saying this is it and you need it now. The next day the law suits start-up.

If Microsoft hires a lawyer as CEO the competition would be very confused. If you hire an engineer you parse his résumé and you can guess what direction he will take. A lawyer well you just don’t know. And a lawyer is just what you need.

This radical idea would confuse investors in the interim but work big time in the long run.

But like the story title says. They will F it up for sure.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on Twitter @financialskepti

Microsoft Candy is Dandy but Sex Wouldn’t Rot You Teeth $MSFT $GOOG $AAPL $YHOO

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) announces dividend increases and share buy backs. As previously predicted the Financial Skeptic called for dividend increases and share buy backs just to keep investor enthusiasm err engagement err addiction up there.

The move is essentially a “Candy is Dandy but Sex Wouldn’t Rot your Teeth” gambit. By increasing the dividend you more deeply engage income investors and protect the floor. By purchasing shares you enhance the financial engineering. but this is all Dandy Candy.

The real sex will come when the new sovereign is found and proclaimed. There will be a magnificent royal procession allowing the subjects to see the new king and proclaim allegiance. Hopefully the sex will not rot our teeth.

It’s all about Steve Ballmer’s replacement. Until we know and have confidence there is a Black Swan Co-relation which causes the market to shiver unexpectedly.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. He does not like shivering unexpectedly. Follow him on Twitter @financialskepti

Googles Californication Episode plays into a Chinese Gambit. Read How $GOOG $YHOO $MSFT $AAPL #Xiamoi

Google (Nasdaq:GOOG) has a high level love triangle which shows how Sergey Brin is losing focus. Sergey having a bad case of seven-year itch has become bored with Anne Wojcicki and has separated. He keeps most of the money due to clever pre-nup.

Sergey is now romantically involved with a women who was previously involved with Hugo Barra a key Android executive. Hugo is leaving for a fast expanding Chinese telephone company called “Xiamoi” which competes with Motorola in the Android space.

Sergey and Google if you recall have had their problems in the Chinese market incurring the wrath of Beijing and being marginalized. Knowing how the Chinese operate someone in Beijing signed off on Hugo Barra; most likely knowing they are taking a key Google brain and turning another gun against Google.

Will this be the demise of Google? Unlikely the game is too big. What is does say about Sergey Brin is most important. Sergey has two children after a six-year marriage. He exercises the droit de seigneur and becomes involved in an affair with a women who was involved with one of his key executives.

Come on buddy. What were you thinking at all those executive presentations. Complicating the issue is Anne Wojcicki’s sister is a Google vice president for advertising. The sister originally rented her garage to the Google founders in the very early days. But surely to God those debts must have been paid in full by now. Is there some sentimental issue involved.

If it wasn’t for the fact Sergey Brin is a founder and major shareholder this would not be important. In other companies executives would have been asked to leave or be re-assigned.

At Google they are still fumbling with China and playing a Californication dating game. the executive suite is beginning to look like a corrupt European court. Oh well let them eat cake.

Xiamoi means little rice in mandarin. Three years old and privately owned Xiamoi may be the next big contender. So who-ever the ex-girlfriend is she doesn’t get market potential concepts.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on Twitter @financialskepti