Twitter Secret Surge Strategy $TWTR

Lots of questions about what will Twitter do. Just remember the presidential election cycle is just cranking up. Thousands of politicians, millions of voters, thousands of tech savvy volunteers.  Obama is still tweeting. politicians will throw money around. that’s what they do.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bear Case Scenario for Twitter $TWTR, $FB, $BABA, $SINA, $BIDU, $GOOG, $YHOO

Twitter’s user base is much smaller than Google, Facebook, and Yahoo. Some advertisers may require massive reach before allocating budget to Twitter.

Twitter is dependent on one style of advertising product. New advertising could turn users away from the service. They will have to be very clever.

Growth in MAU for twitter may be slowing. Is the market potential maturing?

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bull Case Scenario for Twitter $TWTR, $FB, $BABA, $SINA, $BIDU, $GOOG, $YHOO

Twitter’s ad revenue per user continues to grow, surpassing other social networking companies,

Twitter just agreed to a commercial deal with the National Football League to distribute proprietary content (short replays) to Twitter users. This establishes the importance of Twitter to partner companies. Cha Ching.

As Twitter attains a similar active user base to Facebook, the upside opportunity versus our current valuations is significant.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

 

Bear Case Scenario Baidu $BIDU is Done

The company is actively expanding into non-search areas; could depress overall profit margins in the near term.

E-commerce competitor Alibaba offers pay-for-performance search on products listed on its popular C2C site Taobao and B2C site Tmall, which are popular options among small-sized businesses in China. Difficult to compete against.

The low monetization in mobile search will take time before Baidu’s heavy investments reach fruition. Time is risk but Chinese are patient.

 

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. He recently wrote a financial mystery where a Wall Street Titan is assassinated. See if you cheer for the assassin. Available on Amazon http://amzn.to/1yF4QYf

Bull Case Scenario Baidu $BIDU China Bull Maybe

Baidu currently serves under 2% of China’s SMEs. Advertiser base has a long runway of growth before it reaches maturity. We may not see it in our lifetime.

70 million daily active mobile users, Baidu is dominant in the mobile search market given user base, strong brand, and unrivaled knowledge of Chinese culture and language.

CNY 33 billion cash mountain, Baidu has ample dry powder to pursue M&A opportunities to either consolidate its domestic market position or expand into oversea search markets.

 

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. He recently wrote a financial mystery where a Wall Street Titan is assassinated. See if you cheer for the assassin. Available on Amazon http://amzn.to/1yF4QYf

Bull Case Scenario Blackstone $BX

Blackstone CFO just left for greener pastures. Markets sold off. Should we care about one general who changed colours?  Follow this.

A promising growth area will be individual investor solutions. a market  downturn will accelerate dissatisfaction with advisors and Blackstone should win the churn wars that follow.

Given their size even if institutional investors wanted to pull their funds where would they go given the optics of size and performance needed to attract their attention.

That dividend can pay for some pain in the interim. Get paid while you wait.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. He recently wrote a financial mystery where a Wall Street Titan is assassinated. See if you cheer for the assassin. Available on Amazon http://amzn.to/1yF4QYf

Bear Case Scenario Blackstone $BX #AUM

Blackstone just lost their CFO. How good can that be? What else can go wrong?

Firstly a downturn in equities could leave Blackstone limited partners with less than optimal liquidity and large commitments to other funds, making it very difficult for Blackstone to raise new capital. that doesn’t sound so good.

Tough compliance rules, especially outside the USA, could make it harder for Blackstone to market and raise capital for any new funds.

Blackstone’s clawback obligations total approximately $1.4 billion, reportedly they had to refund cash to partners in 2010. When investment returns suffer, Blackstone will see embarrassing and financially painful clawbacks. Equities cannot keep going up forever.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. He recently wrote a financial mystery where a Wall Street Titan is assassinated. See if you cheer for the assassin. Available on Amazon http://amzn.to/1yF4QY