Cookies and Other Brilliant MKTG Insights $GOOG, $MSFT, $APPL, $FB, $TWTR

Everyone knows cookies reside on your device and help supposedly improve your surfing experience all the while fiendishly tracking your digital habits and throwing themselves across your footsteps at the very moment you are about to spend money.

Thats right isn’t it.

Follow this scenario

I’ve just booked a two week vacation to a European destination. I have arranged round trip airfare on an comparison site and then I used AirBNB to arrange accommodations. Done deals. I am now moving onto checking out museums, attractions, restaurants.  All my digital devices were employed at some time in the search and analysis for airfare and accommodations. Cookies galore have attached themselves to my silicon.

But the cookies are serving ads and offerings for yesterday’s decision. I can only flyover once. I plan on staying at one place at a time.  Nothing in the cookies tracks the natural progression of my economic activity. Thousands of ads served without a snowballs chance in hell of doing anything. Maybe a few comments on some museum exhibits would get a click out of me.

Know what I mean marketing geniuses who demand huge stock price multiples for mediocre work.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective

Donald Trump Next President; Who Be the Veep? $SPX, $DJX

Donald Trump seems to have a firm grip on one third of the Republican Party. Those that respond to simple messages and those that have been hurt the most by job losses because of global influences [read free trade and low wages] Most of these constituents do not follow or understand the financial and stock markets. Many are unfortunately poorly educated and without serious skills which explains why it was so simple to take them out of the equation. But I digress.

Trump has broken the rules, broken most rules no broken all the rules and needs to keep moving. He needs to add to his band of disgruntled followers. A break out move would be to appoint Ben Carson as his Vice President. Ben carries around 8% support roughly which would help put Trump on top. More importantly it would allow the Republican Team to challenge the Clinton Machine with its huge reliance on the Black vote.  You do not need to capture the entire black vote. Closely fought states sometimes swing on just a few points and that’s what Ben Carson brings to the table a few points which incrementally may seal victory.

Message to stock market. Trump as he tries to make America Great again will not look to tear down Wall Street. They play too much golf, buy luxury condo’s and so on which has put great wealth in Trump’s pocket.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Will Democrats Squeeze Wall Street $SPY, and $DJX, $QQQl

Bernie Saunders wants to whip and punish Wall Street. He is an old school socialist who redistributes wealth through confiscation err I mean taxation. [pretty close right] If Hilary prevails over Bernie which I think she will,she will probably take a page or two from Bernie and start taxing Wall Street as in starting a transaction tax on every buy and sell. Don’t worry it will start small but it will fund a lot of federal programs. Lots of Vaseline and soothing gentle words.

But Hilary is taking money from Wall Street. Sure she is and this is how she will sell it. I’m not  taxing Wall Street. Your customers will pay it much like customers pay taxes when they put gas in their cars. The consumer is taxed not the oil industry. They just help collect it.

So if Hilary takes the White House expect a tax on every trade big and small. If every share traded in NYSE, Nasdaq, CBOE, and Bond Market were taxed a penny just imagine how much money would be flowing in.

I think this can beat the economics of marijuana and might even get the plumbing changed in Flint Michigan.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

When to Pull the Trigger $SPX, $VIX, $DJX waiting to be picked up

It is always darkest before the dawn. When everyone is puking and cursing the stock market, values are probably just lying around. Presidential four year cycles may not be showing a juiced top but whoever wins in Nov will probably take strong medicine and then you should put your finger on the trigger. Until then it’s time for intensive homework. I mean serious inhale everything homework.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective

Aramco Razzle Dazzle $OIL #OIL

Saudi’s are stuck for cash. Go figure. Financial media recently in test marketed a conceptually IPO. Fee addicts frequently referred to as investment bankers hyper-salivated at t he thought. Here are a few reasons why investment would be a very very bad idea.

  1. You would only be a minority shareholder with no shareholder power. the Saudi Royal family will continue to operate the asset as a personal holding. Investor relations, investor communications, governance, shareholder rights are western concepts not Saudi belief’s.
  2. This Shia/Sunni conflict is an ancient hatred thathat will not be peacefully resolved in our grandchildren’s lifetimes. The Saudi oil fields are populated by Shia’s more beholden to Iran and Sunni’s which run Riyadh and the Saudi Peninsula.  This is called geo-political risk. Oil has enough geo-political risk why invest in ground zero of the risk spectrum.
  3. Iran wants to kill the House of Saud and is prepared to slaughter en masse. Even their own Shia minority would be just considered as glorious martyrs. Iran would not consider for a minute any expropriation costs. They have a fanatical element in their Revolutionary Guard. They’ll just take it and laugh as you kiss their ass.
  4. Saudi’s engineering reserves are a big secret and will not be disclosed. You cannot rightfully invest in something unless you think you’re know the correct value. The Saudi’s will not tell you and one day they will be dry.
  5. Too bad if you are a buy low investor; oil is low and it otherwise should be a good deal.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

 

Hewlett-Packard Rope a Dope Trick $HPQ

Hewlett-Packard announced that it will self amputate into two entities. HPE or Hewlett-Packard Enterprise will keep Meg Whitman so guess what part she thinks is better. The printers and personal computers will be set adrift in something else. Shareholders will need to guess at what has better prospects. Enterprise computers which sounds a lot like what IBM is trying to do or commodity products with hyper thin margins and nothing new or exciting on the horizon.

HP does have brand and it may well be that the printers and personal computers will attract a take-over offer by someone who wants to bulk up; or alternatively by someone who wants to prevent someone else from bulking up.

Either way it reminds me of a Viking’s funeral. You know where they put the olde king out onto a row-boat and set it on fire for a glorious send off. Then the new king does what he wants. That’s probably the fate of printers and personal computers.

Enterprise is hardly a new notion and has lots of contenders. What does HP or Meg Whitman have to offer. A promise of Blood, Sweat and Tears will not do it.

Meh you can do better with your money.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.