Korean Tipping Points $VIX, $QQQ, $GLD, $SPY, $OIL

Assume Korea goes hot

1 America and Allies will pulverize North Korea. This has nothing to do with Trump and everything to do with American Military Power

2 Everyone gets this except North Korean power elite

3 China values its trading relationship with the west more than their olde school relationship with North Korea

4 Regime change needs to take out about a thousand North Korean generals. They are maniacs just like their supreme leader and only know one thing

5 America should not occupy North Korea. This will provoke China and to some extent Russia

6 There will be a huge humanitarian crisis in North Korea. Let China take care of it. Chinese prestige will be on showcase

7 Putin will try to exploit America’s distraction. He is active in Ukraine, Venezuela/Cuba, Syria, Baltics. He will not let this opportunity go by.

8 Japan will discard its non militaristic approach and overtly will build military forces. This will distress China.

9 Because China did not take care of it. Trump will blame China and attempt to punish them to satisfy its base

10 China will intervene somewhere else just to show they are a big dog.  South China Sea, Singapore, Indian Ocean All guesses are good

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective


Trump Ultimately Will Defend West Coast Over South Korea. $GLD, $VIX, $EWY

Military option in Korea frets about possible destruction in South Korea. North Korea has conventional artillery which can bombard Seoul.

But when America thinks North Korea can hit San Francisco with an ICBM they will push whatever button is necessary to protect America.

Sorry about Seoul.

Financial Skeptic writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Only the paranoid survive.

Chop Stick Danger Will Korean Thing Blow Up Asian Valuations $EWY, $FXI, $XCH, $VIX

No one knows how the Korean thing will play out.  Stubborn players are normally removed violently.  Many investors who found investments in China and Korea need to take a sober second look.

Conventional artillery from North Korea can wreck havoc in Seoul and surroundings.  China while large does not have unlimited resources. Chinese leadership is very engineering oriented.  They have not designed for a huge refugee crisis.  Their system will be compromised. Not destroyed but it could easily take a step or two back.

If valuations are present value of future earnings and future earnings will stumble therefore…

Financial Skeptic writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Only the paranoid survive.

Walk Into Buzz Saw Danger Ahead $VIX, $SPY, $GLD, $QQQ, $DJX

Markets are very expensive but continue to tip toe towards disaster.  Earnings season coming with not always good news. All we need is a good catalyst for a serious correction. Hmm let me look at the Black Swans floating around.

The market hates uncertainty.  The Korean thing with nuclear weapons of mass destruction is good enough.  North Korea is a one trick pony. They only know one way.  Trump has deputized the Chinese to fix it.

It will not be pretty. The Chinese will probably throw in a few twists. North Korea will scratch back.

Buckle up. Black Swans floating near you

Financial Skeptic.  Only the paranoid survive.

Coming Stock Market Crash $SPY, $VIX, $VXX 

Everything is pointing up. Euphoria is a sweet nectar.  We are entering over confidence. Stupid people about to be separated from their money. Case in point Bullish sentiment indicator on Dogs of Dow Sentiment Indicator.  Last we heard Bullish is now 68.4% vs 42.6% three months ago. That’s just outright red hot toxic danger.

Not enough for you look at their Neutral indicator 19% vs 405 three months ago. Everyone is piling on. Bears have shrunk to 12.7% vs 17.4%. Over exuberance. 

Remember Bulls make money Bears make money Pigs get slaughtered.

Caveat emptor perspective

Castro’s Funeral Russian Propaganda American Response #Trump, #Putin

Foreign leaders will attend Castro’s funeral. Russia will use the spectacle for their own  propaganda purposes. Trump has rightfully called Castro a Brutal Dictator.  How will Trump deal with his friend who Putin? Or will the deal be America keeps Cuba and Putin keeps Syria.