Putins Days are Numbered $OIL, $RSX, $RBU

Putin’s boys just grabbed another town with a railway station. Europe is angry and afraid. Canada and the US continue to pour on sanctions. The west will prop up the Ukraine just to make the point. Russia is a gas station that thinks it is a country according to Senator McCain. Energy revenues are down. The population is starting to notice things are not so good. The ruling elite is feeling the pinch and probably does not understand why is needs a swath of the Ukraine with Stalinesque factories.

Khrushchev was replaced after the Cuba Missile Crisis. The ruling elite did not appreciate the brinksmanship. Not quite Cuba and no hint of a nuclear stand off but what does the elite have to show for it.

Putin will be gone within a year

Warren Buffett is a Gunslinger Chasing Returns $IBM, $BRK.A, $OIL

Warren Buffett has become a gunslinger chasing returns instead of waiting for the big fat pitch that he talks about.

He just blew off some serious energy stocks because oil prices are down. The value investor should be compelled to look at energy not run from it.

He is loading up on IBM. Warren Buffett has a history of saying he does not understand technology and stays away from it. He is close friends with Bill Gates who I’m sure can explain a few things. But having said that he loads up on IBM.


George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

The B*st*rd Assassinated Me. I Deserved It But I’m Still P*ss*d

Originally posted on George Gutowski Author:

OK so I’m dead now. If you’re reading that book Crowded Trade you’ll recognize me as Gregory Vandernaught. You’ll have to read the book to see how I was assassinated. It wasn’t pretty. Yeah I’m a psychopath who got his way on Wall Street until this guy Frank Stapleton took me out. In my prime I would buy loot and pillage good companies. Borrow lots of money, sell valuable assets quickly and cut jobs. Boy did we cut. Hundreds of thousands of Americans lost there jobs. But we didn’t care.

We worship at the altar of positive cash flow. Cutting jobs was like throwing virgins into the volcano. Had to be done to appease the gods. I was god. so this guy Stapleton figures out a few things. I don’t care anymore because I’m dead. But Wall Street better look out. This guy is not done.

NYPD are such assholes they’ll…

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How to Select Murder Weapons. Difficulty in Crafting Good Murder Thrillers. Apologies to #NRA

Originally posted on George Gutowski Author:

Just polishing up my Financial Thriller “Crowded Trade”. I kill a guy in the book. First chapter just to set the tone. Starting to think about the sequels and I have decided that all my murder weapons will not be guns or firearms. The challenge will be the modern mindset. Guns are so prevalent the mind goes naturally to a gun as a murder weapon. So to hopefully make it more interesting for the reader and certainly more difficult for me the author I will not be using guns and firearms. You’ll have to read the book when it comes out.

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#Cuba Obama’s Secret Agenda $OIL, $GAZ

What is Obama’s secret agenda with Cuba? Liberalizing something after as half century sounds good but isn’t the real reason. Cuba sits in the Gulf of Mexico which has pumped oil and gas for nearly a century.

America wants access to the  reserves in the Cuban sectors. Oil companies with sophisticated exploration techniques have probably identified some interesting prospects or perhaps there is a new technology that has simplified extraction.

In any event Shale Gas and Oil has a high depletion rate. America likes not being held to ransom by foreign dictators. Cuba is close by so why not. Geo-politically a few boat people one way or the other did not make any sense.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bear Case Scenario for Vodafone $VOD

Many suspect Vodafone will overpay for more acquisitions and not utilize capital very effectively.

Telecom is global. Vodafone ARPU is underwhelming. Efforts to migrate customers to 4G higher margin are progressing slowly.

Indian operations are a proverbial thorn. Supreme Court rules Vodafone does not have to pay a huge tax for its acquisition of Hutchison Essar in 2007. Then Parliament passes a new law retroactively looking for the tax. Vodafone needs a political solution not a public dispute.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.