Trump May Pick Sanders as VP $SPY $DJX, $QQQ

So the Donald is neck and neck with Hillary. Hillary cannot shake off Bernie. Donald needs something to shake off Hillary. Consider this: Pick Sanders as the VP. It ties up the angry vote which is rebelling against establishments left and right. Many Sanders supporters like the Trump message.

Trump has been opportunistic. Sanders is not disliked by the NRA. Both claim to want to bash Wall Street. Sanders is independent. Trump can ignore his VP if he gets in but it gets him the White House.

In a war you need to get strategic advantage. This would create a new dynamic which none of the existing strategists has even considered.

Beats an independent ticket.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Coming Political Disaster Credit Cards $DFS, $COF, $XLF, $AXP, $V, $MA

OK so it’s probably Donald and Hillary; both from New York. Hillary needs to keep riding the Bernie Sanders wave of blame Wall Street for everything. Trump needs to keep his disgruntled base alive. No one likes their credit cards company. No one likes to pay. No one likes the sneaky rules that entrap many credit card users. Frequently intelligent people as well.

Credit Card companies have been doing quite nicely. They would be easy bashing for both Donald and Hillary. No re-election worries for four years so let’s kick the crap out of them before the lobbyist reminds you of stuff.

But in the the mean time it will look bad for credit cards. Just remember bulls markets are born on pessimism.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Starbucks Debases It’s Currency $SBUX Not Really

Recently many financial news outlets were appalled that Starbucks had debased its currency. For the non Starbucks user that’s the star rewards system for the frequent user.

Major change yes. The olde system revolved around beverages mainly coffee. The new system is more rapaciously capitalist and revolves around dollar volume tweaked to profit margins and under-utilized time slots when the baristas are not busy enough.

Good move Starbucks. You are moving away from the breakfast model into an all day bakery with selected liquor licenses.

The true genius of the system is the prepaid float that Starbucks is developing. Every business loves it’s free cash. Just ask banks that offer no interest chequing accounts.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Apples Geopolitical Naïveté $AAPL, #DIDI, $FXI,$DANG

Apple is demonstrating some extreme geopolitical naïveté. Looking for growth they have dropped a Billion American into DiDi and think they are playing with some of the big players in China.

The biggest player is of course the Chinese Communist Party. Mao Tse Tung’s grand children are mainly engineers and want to ensure China is resurgent and powerful. Apple is a strong example of western success not Chinese success. As Yahoo found out they have ways to cut you out of deals without you even realizing it.

The Asain mind that studied at American Universities vs the American Psyche that wears comfortable New Balance Shoes. Hmm

Well the deal so far only cost Apple $1 billion. They have some $253 Billion but whose counting.

You know what they say. When you look around the room and can’t figure out who the stupidest guy is; it’s you. The Apple logo may have two bites in it soon.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Cookies and Other Brilliant MKTG Insights $GOOG, $MSFT, $APPL, $FB, $TWTR

Everyone knows cookies reside on your device and help supposedly improve your surfing experience all the while fiendishly tracking your digital habits and throwing themselves across your footsteps at the very moment you are about to spend money.

Thats right isn’t it.

Follow this scenario

I’ve just booked a two week vacation to a European destination. I have arranged round trip airfare on an comparison site and then I used AirBNB to arrange accommodations. Done deals. I am now moving onto checking out museums, attractions, restaurants.  All my digital devices were employed at some time in the search and analysis for airfare and accommodations. Cookies galore have attached themselves to my silicon.

But the cookies are serving ads and offerings for yesterday’s decision. I can only flyover once. I plan on staying at one place at a time.  Nothing in the cookies tracks the natural progression of my economic activity. Thousands of ads served without a snowballs chance in hell of doing anything. Maybe a few comments on some museum exhibits would get a click out of me.

Know what I mean marketing geniuses who demand huge stock price multiples for mediocre work.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective

Donald Trump Next President; Who Be the Veep? $SPX, $DJX

Donald Trump seems to have a firm grip on one third of the Republican Party. Those that respond to simple messages and those that have been hurt the most by job losses because of global influences [read free trade and low wages] Most of these constituents do not follow or understand the financial and stock markets. Many are unfortunately poorly educated and without serious skills which explains why it was so simple to take them out of the equation. But I digress.

Trump has broken the rules, broken most rules no broken all the rules and needs to keep moving. He needs to add to his band of disgruntled followers. A break out move would be to appoint Ben Carson as his Vice President. Ben carries around 8% support roughly which would help put Trump on top. More importantly it would allow the Republican Team to challenge the Clinton Machine with its huge reliance on the Black vote.  You do not need to capture the entire black vote. Closely fought states sometimes swing on just a few points and that’s what Ben Carson brings to the table a few points which incrementally may seal victory.

Message to stock market. Trump as he tries to make America Great again will not look to tear down Wall Street. They play too much golf, buy luxury condo’s and so on which has put great wealth in Trump’s pocket.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Will Democrats Squeeze Wall Street $SPY, and $DJX, $QQQl

Bernie Saunders wants to whip and punish Wall Street. He is an old school socialist who redistributes wealth through confiscation err I mean taxation. [pretty close right] If Hilary prevails over Bernie which I think she will,she will probably take a page or two from Bernie and start taxing Wall Street as in starting a transaction tax on every buy and sell. Don’t worry it will start small but it will fund a lot of federal programs. Lots of Vaseline and soothing gentle words.

But Hilary is taking money from Wall Street. Sure she is and this is how she will sell it. I’m not  taxing Wall Street. Your customers will pay it much like customers pay taxes when they put gas in their cars. The consumer is taxed not the oil industry. They just help collect it.

So if Hilary takes the White House expect a tax on every trade big and small. If every share traded in NYSE, Nasdaq, CBOE, and Bond Market were taxed a penny just imagine how much money would be flowing in.

I think this can beat the economics of marijuana and might even get the plumbing changed in Flint Michigan.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.