Bear Case Scenario for Facebook $FB, $GOOG, $TWTR, $YHOO, $BIDU, $TCTZF

Facebook (Nasdaq:FB) is about to open up its kimono and show us some stuff. Ponder this Bear Case scenario as you contemplate management comments and remarks.

Privacy issues may hamper product development and roll out. This delays earnings ramp up which dearly needs to be happening immediately if not sooner.

Advertisers are still not certain if the spend is worth it. There is still a lot of experimentation and the blind may be leading the blind. Hard to justify stratospheric valuations when the core business case is not solid.

Management has made some public comments about ad density being insufficient for satisfactory results. Not a good one by any stretch of the imagination.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bear Case Scenario for Boeing $BA, $LMT, $GD, $EADSY, $RYCEY, $SAFRY

Boeing (NYSE:BA) is coming out with earnings results shortly. Follow this Bear Case Scenario as you ponder management remarks.

As Lockheed ramps up F-35 production Boeing’s share in the global fighter jet market is poised to decline.

Airbus was first to market with the next-gen single-aisle aircraft, the A320neo. Its first-mover advantage has allowed it to take nearly 60% of the orders, and Boeing’s 737-MAX’s later launch may be too late to recapture market share. Boeing needs a way to blow away the first move advantage if its to reclaim the lead.

Boeing’s defense business will shrink and suffer as Uncle Sam cuts defense spending. It’s just that simple.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bear Case Scenario for Stocks $DJX, $SPX, $SPY, $VIX, $VXX

Margin debt is a gift from the Devil. According to NYSE is currently stands at $445 Billion. Record high as investors leverage increases and the dice continue to roll hot. But falling markets are akin to a man trying to remove a burning jacket. Crazy, frenetic and other-worldly.

Margin gift from the Devil.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bear Case Scenario for Yahoo $YHOO, $GOOG, $MSFT, $FB, $TWTR, $BIDU, $TCTZF

Yahoo (Nasdaq:YHOO) is about to release earnings results. Ponder this Bear Case Scenario as you contemplate management comments.

About one-third of Yahoo’s revenues emanate from search, a product offering where the firm has clear disadvantages relative to competitors such as Google. Yahoo has nothing serious going on in this area.

Total audiences are growing but Yahoo is still falling behind other web sites which continue to provide compelling content. News is news. Katie Couric reading it does not help out the news junkie.

Employee turn-over may have stabilized for now. But there are large portions of Yahoo which will be cut-up and cast-off very soon.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bear Case Scenario for VMware. $VMW, $MSFT, $ORCL, $CA, $CTXS, $FFIV

VMware (NYSE:VMW) is about to release earnings results. Ponder this Bear Case Scenario as you contemplate management comments.

VMware face a more robust challenge from Microsoft in small and midsize markets. The dominance than it has enjoyed in more complex large enterprise data centers will not continue.

Many players are attempting to dethrone VMware in virtualization. As VMware’s technology lead shortens and customers gain more choices, the company could lose its monopoly like pricing power.

VMware’s software-defined data center strategy will most likely lead to significant backlash.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bear Case Scenario for Owens Illinois $OI, $IP, $RKT, $AMCRY, $BLL, $REXMY

Owens-Illinois (NYSE:OI) is about to release earnings results. Ponder this Bear Case Scenario as you listen to management comments.

O-I’s frequent need to restructure is a sign that the company often struggles to match regional supply with demand.

Age olde asbestos liabilities and uncomfortably wide pension deficit will prevent it from making the investments it needs to defend its market-leading position.

The prospect of substitution is extremely high. Glass has a shrinking market share compared to plastic and metal packaging in almost all regions and all products. If this trend continues, O-I’s top and bottom lines are likely to suffer.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bear Case Scenario Electronic Arts $EA, $MSFT, $NTDOF, $ATVI, $SGAMF, $SGMZ

Electronic Arts (Nasdaq:EA) is about to release earnings. Ponder this Bear Case Scenario as you listen to management comments.

The casual gamer demographic has been an important contributor to growth of the video game market. EA has traditionally been weak in the casual gaming segment.

EA competes with much larger first-party video game publishers such as Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo, which have greater resources and an institutional advantage in developing games for their own gaming consoles.

EA is spreading itself across just too many projects and may not provide adequate support to all of its titles.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bear Case Scenario for AT&T $T, $VZ, $CHL, $VOD, $SFTBF, $AAPL

AT&T (NYSE:T) is about to release earnings. Follow this Bear Case Scenario as you ponder management comments.

A much too large portion of revenue and cash flow comes from fixed-line local and long-distance phone services. These business remain under severe attack from competitors, Telco wannabees and technological substitution. This business will continue to shrivel.

AT&T’s is very heavy reliant on the iPhone. Half of its retail customers use the device. AT&T shells out large subsidies for each new iPhone model. How long can this continue before it bits shareholders.

Local network upgrade runs the very serious risk of leave the firm with too little capacity to offer the data speeds customers increasingly desire.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bear Case Scenario Amgen $AMGN, $NVO, $GILD, $RHHLVF

Amgen (Nasdaq:AMGN) is about to release earning results. Ponder this Bear Case Scenario as you contemplate management comments.

Generic off patent versions of Amgen’s Epogen and Neupogen have invaded the European market. These biosimilars are certain to have a larger impact in years to come. Patents are expiring and a U.S. regulatory pathway for biosimilars is finalized. Margin compression coming soon.

Epogen reimbursement from Medicare  is now bundled with other dialysis drugs, which creates an incentive to cut use.  Medicare is the chief payer for dialysis patients in the U.S.

Recent clinical data has brought the safety of the entire ESA class of drugs into question. This has lead to reimbursement cuts, restricted drug labels, and severe pressure on Amgen’s revenue growth.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bear Case Scenario for Apple $AAPL, $SSNLF, $PHG, $PCRFY, $GOOG, $MSFT

Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) releases earnings soon. Follow this Bear Case Scenario as you ponder management comments.  The recent decisions to continue with a premium pricing strategy prevents gross margin compression. However low-end sales are expected to grow more rapidly than high-end. Has Apple missed the boat to maintain dominance on a large-scale and will it eventually revert to a niche product. Samsung offers a wide range of products which appeal to many sectors. Apple only offers a few which it believes are kick ass. Henry Ford had the same concept when he offered any colour of Model T that you wanted as long as it was black. They have never been number one since then. The Carl Icahn side-show may distract management a little bit but up to now the market is not howling for radically restructure at Apple.

George Gutowski writes from a Caveat Emptor Perspective.