Home » Bear Case Scenario » Bear Case Scenario Aflac Inc $AFL, $LFC, $PIAIF, $AAGIY

Bear Case Scenario Aflac Inc $AFL, $LFC, $PIAIF, $AAGIY

Aflac (NYSE:AFL) is about to release earnings. Ponder this Bear Case Scenario as you listen to management comments.

Japan Post will soon be fully privatized. They probably will elect to issue supplemental insurance directly rather than peddle Aflac products. This is going to be serious. Very serious.

Customer retention in the US is around 75%. As that duck try to grow its portfolio in the US it will face increasing churn costs which will severely compress margins. That duck is gonna quack something bad.

Japanese deregulation of life insurance will create more competitive pressure. The Japanese bedrock is looking like a pile of loose gravel.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.