Home » Bear Case Scenario » Bear Case Scenario Oracle $ORCL, $MSFT, $VMW, $CA, $CTXS, $FFIV

Bear Case Scenario Oracle $ORCL, $MSFT, $VMW, $CA, $CTXS, $FFIV

Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL) is about to release earnings. Ponder this Bear Case Scenario.

Systems maintenance revenues are under assault from more cost-effective and competent providers. Rimini Street and others are chipping away at this supposed stable revenue base. Oracle will need to do something to protect this revenue base or risk losing it.

Business-model transition is incredibly complicated and difficult to get right. Oracle has ample opportunity to fail to adapt product offerings to a subscription model.

Open-source databases, such as Ingres, and PostgreSQL, MySQL (now owned by Oracle), present a strategic threat to Oracle’s dominance of the database market. Small companies in particular find open-source compelling and less threatening.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.