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CBS is there a Bear Case Scenario $CS, $DIS, $CMSA, $FOXB

CBS is about to release earnings. Ponder if there is a Bear Case Scenario:

The pay-tv system is poised for disruption which will negatively impact CBS earnings. It’s only a question of when not if.

CBS is currently cannibalizing their olde titles and selling through Netflix. They will eventually exhaust their library and run out of revenue drivers. They are depleting faster than they are creating. this will create block buster risk taking as they roll the dice on big budget big impact big failure productions.

CBS remains a hostage to advertising revenues which are driven by macro-economics and the political spend cycle. The system is highly levered and any drop in ad revenue comes off the bottom line immediately. Sweet ride on the way up. Terrible drop on the way down.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.