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Adobe’s coming Black Swan Scenario $ADBE, $INTU, $CRM, $DASTF

Adobe is about to release earnings. Ponder the Black Swan swimming gracefully.

Adobe is attempting to convert to a subscription model. The mathematical model is elegant and compelling. But ask yourself how many users want to enslave themselves to growing monthly payments in perpetuity. To maintain the monthly billing cycle Adobe will be forced to constantly innovate and upgrade offering increasingly compelling features.

The monthly subscription renders you vulnerable to disruptive competition. A monthly charge is at risk to free or near free price competition. Adobe could face strong competition from predatory pricing.

Flash dominance continues to erode. HTML5 will continue eating it’s lunch. Subscription or not; it is going away. Apple wants to kill it.

Migrating large customers to the cloud is risky. One or two mistakes and they lose credibility followed by an exodus of customers and then declining cash flow in that very rapid order.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.