Bear Case Scenario Burger King $BKW, $XLY, $PBJ

QSR is subject to labour challenges. The left wing is militant and trying to organize. It cant work but in the meantime it will be disruptive.

QSR offers fats, salts, sugars and carbs. Basically this is the gift of diabetes. There will be lawsuits and lots of activist pressure.

Fast food will be subject to more taxation as a sin tax from cash strapped governments.

Food cost inputs are volatile. Beef can change 10-15% on the turn of a dime. Retailer pricing cannot move as quickly.

Burger King is not the dominant brand and does not have the economies of scale that other competitors have.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bull Case Scenario Burger King $BKW, $XLY, $PBJ

Burger King has tremendous expansion potential. There are many markets in both the US and International regions which can take a few more Burger King Restaurants.

Burger King has a large franchise base which allows it to leverage its capital more efficiently.

Burger King is smaller and more nimble than larger behemoths who may not react to market trends as quickly.

Burger King still does not have a direct investment and dividend re-investment plan which will lock in buy  and hold investors.

QSR when successful generates lots of cash flow for dividends. Dividend yield is low and pressure will be to grow the dividend.

They got rid of the creepy King which really just freaked people out.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bear Case Scenario for $PG, $IYK, $XLP

Proctor and Gamble has not executed well on several launches. They do not have a sufficient D-Day strategic depth which is worrisome. They run out of product and seem unable to sustain initial marketing efforts.

Proctor and Gamble may be over relying on price discounts in relation to competitors. Price competition is a slippery slope to permanent price compression.

Proctor and Gamble will not be able to maintain many product growth rates as their market share and penetrations are already high and have very little room for improvement.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bull Case Scenario $PG, $IYK, $XLP

Proctor and Gambles operates a portfolio of go to products which are essential stocking items for various retailers. Stores simply must have their product on the shelf. This drives customer traffic which can be leveraged into other sales.

P&G is reducing costs by $10 billion over the next five years. Staff reductions, sourcing and materials are all being reviewed and costs will be lowered. Cost reductions can only work for so long but Proctor and Gamble have enough fat to feed earnings growth.

Increasing amounts of revenues come from low tax rate jurisdictions. This creates shareholder wealth until such time as the profits are to be returned to the USA. But in the meantime wealth is created outside of America.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Time-Warner Cable Bear Case Scenario $TWC, $CMCSA, $NFLX

Cable Snipping is increasing. Cable is a high fixed cost business. How much longer until the tipping point?

Many content providers such a Netflix, Hulu and perhaps others yet to be developed only require high speed internet. TWC as a brand may become irrelevant.

Customer Service still lags major competitors. They seem stuck in the muck.

Wireless offerings are not fully developed and easily beaten in the market place. Fixed line mentality resigns supreme.

Existing lines of business are eroding. Telephone land lines are disappearing. Telephone companies are stealing internet customers. Margins are shrinking.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Time-Warner Cable Bull Case Scenario $TWC, $CMCSA

Time-Warner like most cable operations has a great mix of copper and coaxial cable which will bring in voice, text, data, streaming and cash flow.

Local Scale in Los Angeles has allowed TWC to carve out lucrative deals with Lakers and Dodgers.

As one of the three biggest pay TV operators TWC can carve out preferential content deals in those situations where content needs to be peddled.

Local monopoly power will still be valuable for a long time to come.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Tesla Motors Bear Case Scenario $TSLA, $CARZ

Tesla has shown the way and competition will be fierce.

Electric cars need a major grid. Many electricity utilities are simply unprepared or unwilling to support.

The dealer community for internal combustion engines is politically powerful and very short sighted. Tesla needs to acquire political heft to counter the ultra-provincial thinking.

New technologies are not slam dunks. There will be pot holes along the way. Maybe even sink holes.

Tesla has a market cap of some $28 Billion compare to Ford at $70 Billion or GM at $55 Billion. While the Tesla narrative looks great, is it priced properly? By the way share price is supposed to represent the future value of earnings.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.