Tesla Motors Bull Case Scenario $TSLA, $CARZ

Tesla is the disruptive power of the automotive space. They have no ties or nostalgia to the internal combustion engine. Everyone is excited by Tesla.

The planet simply must go Green or choke to death. Tesla has the solution for the biggest polluter which is the family car.

Tesla is so sexy that politicians will line up with lucrative incentives to induce manufacturing and development. This will reduce Tesla’s capital costs.

Tesla does not have unsold inventory which needs special incentives.

Tesla is a thought leader in the automotive field. Everyone else is doing market research to figure out what colour is hot.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. 

LinkedIn Bear Case Scenario $LNKD, $SOCL, $FB

Very large investments in areas that have nothing to do with career search may prove unprofitable which will lower return on capital and distract management.

The social media model is still early stages. Someone has to blow themselves up and LinkedIn is as likely a candidate as anyone else.

LinkedIn is the most successful social media offering at present. Can they fight off competition and me-too offerings.

Viadeo is larger in the Chinese market. They may acquire bulk and scale which an English centric LinkedIn cannot achieve.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

LinkedIn Bull Case Scenario $LNKD, $SOCL, $FB

LinkedIn has over 290 million professional users and growing. The membership is a very focused metric which most career oriented types need. Getting a well paying job.

As they open their platform to new applications manufacturers err developers; revenues will grow and new products will be introduced.

Facebook has had more publicity but LinkedIn has better metrics on their users. Facebook whatever and I like cupcakes. LinkedIn identifies salary ranges, education, propensities and other actionable digital intelligence.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bear Case Scenario for $YELP, $SOCL, $GOOG

Yelp deals on a local basis. How much profit can you squeeze from recommendations for small local businesses. Not much.

Yelp needs to acquire new business, new reviewers and new users every day. This is very cumbersome and time consuming.

It’s very easy to get distracted as the executive tries to hit homeruns.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bull Case Scenario for Yelp $YELP, $SOCL, $GOOG

Yelp has become the industry standard for searching reviews on local businesses. Who does not have a Yelp App on their smartphone or tablet.

Very few decisions are made without checking on Yelp. No other retail real estate can come close to this kind of power

As Yelp becomes more powerful more business of all descriptions will come flowing in. Tipping point concept.

 

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Agnico-Eagle Bear Case Scenario $AEM, $GLD

Agnico-Eagle is about to report earnings. Here is the Bear Case Scenario

New mines exhibit higher production costs than the original flagship mine LaRonde. Resulting in newer mines coming on line  deteriorating the firm’s cost position (on a byproduct basis) closer to the industry average.

Challenges of operating in the extreme remoteness and cold of the Canadian Arctic are leading to lower-than-expected gold production and significant cost inflation at the firm’s Meadowbank mine. Surprise this is the Artic.

Investors can always by-pass the corporate exposure and just buy the commodity.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Agnico-Eagle Bull Case Scenario $AEM, $GLD

Agnico-Eagle is about to report earnings. Here is the Bull Case Scenario

Agnico-Eagle has achieved a very high growth rate in the past half-decade or so. Starting at roughly 230,000 ounces in 2007 to just under 1.1 million ounces in 2013.

Producing assets are in the relatively stable and mining-friendly countries of Canada, Finland, and Mexico. Next to no geo-political risk baked in.

Gold companies tend to be countercyclical. They also provide an excellent hedge to inflation risk. Now if we can only figure out if we are in cycle and where is inflation really heading.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.