Bear Case Scenario for Exxon Mobile $XOM, $OIL, $GAZ

As sovereigns become more protective of their resources Exxon mobile will find it more difficult to increase their reserves.

Record high commodity prices created large profits. Petroleum pricing is very down. Exxon Mobile profits are shrinking pro-rata.

Exxon Mobile is slow to sign contracts. This may slow revenue growth as they do not jumpo at every deal. This will also help kept investments clean and properly priced.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.


Bull Case Scenario for Exxon Mobile $XOM, $OIL, $GAZ

Exxon Mobile superior capital structure and operational performance should deliver excellent returns in the future.

National oil companies need the exploration and operational expertise of an Exxon Mobile and naturally select XOM to do the expertise stuff.

Exxon Mobil has integrated the supply and production chain which creates a unique value proposition. Other comparable oil companies own assets portfolio style. They do not have integration synergies.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bear Case Scenario for CBOE. Are derivatives worth it? $CBOE

Volume swings are erratic making it difficult for investors to determine the present value of future profits.

Overall options growth has been slower of late. Declining growth is never an attractive proposition in any product line.

Flat markets are not good for business. Competition will grow. Regulators will continue to push their useless noses into CBOE business and distract management and destroy good pricing models. Regulators do not understand risk. They are like the fire dep’t. They show up after the problem flares up.

Other forms of competition are developing attractive and compelling products. CBOE will have to hustle fast, longer and harder just to stand still.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.


Bull Case Scenario for CBOE and Options Business Maybe. $CBOE

As market continues to focus on exchange traded ETF derivatives CBOE will continue to grow and grow and grow.

Consolidation activity continues. CBOE will make someone an attractive offer. After all they are only some $5 Billion in market cap. A mere pittance for a deal junkie.

Their innovation record, VIX methodology, and exclusive index options licenses give it a significant advantage over rivals. Did we justify the acquisition at a premium logic? Yes we did

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.


LinkedIn Bear Case Scenario $LNKD, $SOCL

Very large investments in areas that have nothing to do with career search may prove unprofitable which will lower return on capital and distract management.

The social media model is still early stages. Someone has to blow themselves up and LinkedIn is as likely a candidate as anyone else.

Viadeo is larger in the Chinese market. They may acquire bulk and scale which an English centric LinkedIn cannot achieve.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

LinkedIn Bull Case Scenario $LNKD, $SOCL

LinkedIn has over 290 million professional users and growing. The membership is a very focused metric which most career oriented types need. Getting a well paying job.

As they open their platform to new applications manufacturers; revenues will grow and new products will be introduced.

Facebook has had more publicity but LinkedIn has better metrics on their users. Facebook whatever and I like cupcakes. LinkedIn identifies salary ranges, education, propensities and other actionable digital intelligence.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.