Bear Case Scenario for Con Ed. $ED

The high cost of living in New York particularly in New York City puts a ceiling on revenue growth. Hydro rates are political beasts and respond to social pressure.


As rates increase alternative power sources such as solar become more viable. People who can afford a $3 million townhouse have money for solar panels to knock down their ransom payments to con Ed.


George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective

Bull Case Scenario for Con Ed. $ED

Con Ed has raised its dividend each year for the past 40 years. Very few companies can put that track record to a test.

Con Ed generates a dividend yield of 4.7% which is head and shoulders above many a peer.

Con Ed’s infrastructure investments allow higher rates and increase to its earnings faster than load growth beyond 2015. Load growth will also drive future investment in rate base.


George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Disney may be looking at a Bear Case Scenario $DIS, $PEJ

If America’s recovery stumbles theme parks and movies will experience lower revenues.

New media assets have experienced difficulty in monetizing concepts despite their popularity. Mickey Mouse needs to learn how to go to the bank.

Disney’s dominant position in sports makes it an attractive target to competition.

The TV sports model is shifting. The NFL is looking to partially shift to internet offerings and by pass television. College sports will be just one step behind.

The growing power of Netflix and similar offerings needs to be leveraged properly. Otherwise other competitors will become more dominant stronger brands.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Disney Is Mickey Mouse in a Bull Case Scenario $DIS, $PEJ

Disney Theme Parks have rebounded nicely from the last recession. A trip to Disney World is still at the top of the list for a lot of people.

ESPN is the main driver of revenue. Multiple channels serve a sports crazy populace. ESPN has locked up college football which remains wildly popular with the American people.

Movie making is a hit or miss business. But Disney has a large library of popular classics that just continue throwing off cash.

Pixar is a valuable asset. Branded films and characters continue to establish popular brands. Creativity is tremendous. Several creative elements have spilled over to theme parks.

Disney is a 100 year stock always providing something the paying public wants.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.


Bear Case Scenario for Spilt Beer $TAP

Molson Coors operates in mature margin challenged markets which are subject to price competition. Where is the growth coming from?

Molson Coors premium products face stiff competition from craft beer operators. The market trend is to small craft beers not big brew comes on a large union truck.

Low levels of employment hinder sales. Its just that simple.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.


Bull Case Scenario for a Beer Buzz $TAP

Molson Coors is the second largest brewer in Canada and the United States. This allows for tremendous operation efficiencies and economies of scale.

When employment in North America picks up beer sales will follow suit.

Other brewers are thirsty for acquisitions. Molson Coors would fit nicely in many portfolios with a smooth taste and fine finish.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.


Bear Case Scenario for Nvidia Shareholders $NVDA

Rapid product cycles make it difficult to maintain lead over AMD. Very easy to stumble. Hard to recover.

Everyone knows mobile is where it’s at. Everyone has some kind of a plan to get a bigger piece of the pie. Competition is and will continue to be fierce.

Too much of current revenue comes from a maturing desktop market. Nvidia is vulnerable to macro trends.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.