Bear Case Scenario Why Alibaba is over hyped; Crash and Burn $BABA

The Chinese market is huge. Other savvy well capitalized players are and will expand into China. Alibaba does not have all the answers.

Alibaba is Chinese and to a great extent beholden to Beijing. There will be subtle pressure from the Emperor’s court. The pressure only works if the Emperor’s court has much power globally.

Despite its domestic dominance in China it will be necessary to expand globally. This will be new battle ground without the normal advantages but much prestige will be involved. Alibaba will not automatically thrive in new markets.

Alibaba has and will invest in offerings within its eco system. This will distract management as it fights side battles and loses focus on the main goal.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Big Bubble Bull Case Scenario for Alibaba. $BABA

Alibaba has only 20% of active buyers in China. Growth potential seems arithmetically simple. The first 20% is the hardest incrementally profits will continue as scale is realized.

Approximately 70% of Chinese internet shoppers born in the 1990s consider Taobao as their first online shopping destination. Loyalty and user habit may suggest a lifetime of potential transactions ahead.

Alibaba is structurally well positioned to profit from B2B to C2C. This will be revolutionary as the Chinese economy grows and matures.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.