Lots of big Asian Meetings coming up. Trump going to the big ones. He’s sent three aircraft carriers to hold his place until he gets there. No visit to DMZ. Wise to eliminates a provocation opportunity for the North Koreans.
But the underlying vibe has changed some.
Trump just wants to whack North Korea and Kim Jong-un and carve out place in history. Mad man does good thing sort of thing.
Japanese Leader Abe coming off a very democratic two thirds super majority. He has a mandate to increase Japan’s military posture. Korea will only be a starting point. Then there is the South China Sea, Shipping Lanes, Muslin insurgencies in Phillipines, Indonesia etc. Abe is probably China’s biggest concern.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping who has just been crowned by the Chinese Communist Party as the most powerful leader since Mao and has his own aspirations. Xi should be Abe’s biggest concern.
Problem is Trump and western world see this as a Korea problem. Japan and China see this as an age old conflict for Asian Dominance with an American irritation. Trump and the Pentagon will most likely prevail in the shooting phase, compliments of the American Taxpayor.
What about round two. Just as Bush went into Iraq with a short term game plan so too do I fear Trumps short term game plan. He has no long game.
That is how you get Black Swans. This is how you grind up the South Korean Economy which China would like to replace.
George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective