Tech Eats own Babies. $BBRY Buyout must in 2013. Tax Selling helps Predatory Pricing. $AAPL $GOOG $MSFT

Blackberry (Nasdaq:BBRY) needs to go into the private equity repair shop. Sooner than later. Manic depressive stock traders just have a negative howl which will not be satiated until stock is delisted.

Sep is over. Most holders are looking at big losses. Tax loss season coming soon. There will be a classic game of chicken over the timing of an offer and the valuation that goes with it vs the compelling logic of tax loss selling.

So the propeller heads who are trying to value are looking at strong selling pressure. This zaps any buy out premium. So this six-week due diligence with a go shop clause is another way to force the stock price down and avoid any large valuation increases. But the lawyers like it real good.

Investors have no choice. You have been screwed over. Sell and join any class action lawsuits that you can find.

Technology eats its own babies.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on Twitter @ @financialskepti

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Apple Door Crasher Data Seriously Flawed; Addiction Behaviour = Risk $AAPL, $GOOG, $BBRY, $MSFT

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) released new iPhones in 11 critical markets. Preliminary data indicates the expensive model is selling very well. Early adopters are driving this demand. People line up for days on end ahead of time sleeping on side walks if need be to be among the first to buy the phone. Not sure why Apple doesn’t auction them off to highest bidder and leverage the insane demand. Maybe donate money to charity or something good like that.

Do not be suckered by the addiction mentality of early adopters. Demand is a long-term equation not a one day door crasher sale. A buy or sell decision on one day data is foolish and incomplete.

A correct fundamental analysis would concentrate on how the product is being extended and if it fights off Android. Battles are fought not on one bullet. All generals know to prevail you need mass on the battle field. Speaking of which Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) Nokia and Blackberry (Nasdaq: BBRY)

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on Twitter @financialskepti

Blackberry Black Swan Event. What Valuation if Market Collapses in Fall. $BBRY Will it Stick Babee

Blackberry (Nasdaq:BBRY) looks like a take-over maybe this fall. But wait a second. Take-overs are at a premium. What if the market corrects sharply in the fall. It’s happened before. So how do you squeeze the last penny out of the offer when everyone else is fighting off margin calls.

Black Swans and the Law of Unintended Consequences may rule.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on Twitter @ financialskepti

Blackberry Shareholder Guerilla Defense Shareholders Gonna Get Screwed Over $BBRY #smartphone

Blackberry (Nasdaq:BBRY) is probably going private. Will shareholders get screwed over. Hell Yeah. First the leading smart phone company falls from grace because of the Apple then Android Juggernauts. While still making money and generating positive cash flow this investment is pummeled in the court of public opinion which is not the best place for isolating true value.

Stock drops precipitously and rumours and stories abound about viability. All the while creating positive cash flow and maintaining a sizeable cash balance. Some loser. In the mean time the board is reconstituted. Hockey owner wannabes leave. Bay Street professionals come in.

Barb Stymiest former head of Toronto Stock Exchange, former Chief Investment Officer Bank of Montreal, former member of Group Executive of Royal Bank of Canada; currently on board of directors of Sun Life, and some other star blue chip places she suddenly is nominated to run Blackberry. Well run in the sense that she was Chairman and someone else was going to decide important stuff about technology. But she knew the street.

Bunch of remedial stuff gets tried. Shares kinda bounce around. They dead cat bounce off their lows. Q10 is brought to market but does not topple Apple in one fell swoop. (No kidding) Talk of mergers and take overs become just that. Then one of Canada’s largest pension plans. CPPIB Canada Pension Plan Investment Board starts to take serious but small positions. The word gets out. It’s gonna be them but we have to do this by the numbers.

So will investors realize value or will they be forced out. the stock traded north of $60 not two years ago. Today it flits around $10 on news of a private equity offer by a deep pocketed investor. What will it drift up to? What will the take-over premium be? Should investors accept the offer and cash in. Or should you keep a portion and take the very long ride that a pension plan will take. CPPIB is smart. Very smart.

Investors should signal that they want to take a piece of the long action in return for not starting lots of lawsuits.

BTW the American Social Security Fund pales in comparison to Canada Pension Plan. CPP is able to invest in assets other than government bonds at low interest rates. They have professional management which hunts value like the best of them.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on Twitter @ financialskepti

Blackberry $BBRY Whatz Next? What do we use for a Short Position?

Blackberry (Nasdaq:BBRY) is probably going private. Not long ago the stock was north of $60. Today it flits around $10. Blackberry became the whipping boy that everyone loved to short. You know the hedge fund guys with the long short positions. The question becomes who to pick on now for a short.

While some investors are glad this one is going off the radar a lot of traders big and small loved using the stock as the short. It will be hard to replace the sentiment that was so strongly against Blackberry and probably justified the possible buy-out.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. follow him on Twitter @financialskepti

Blackberry Busted Play or Classic Contrarian Tool $BBRY #smartphone $AAPL

Blackberry (Nasdaq:BBRY) is the markets favourite whipping boy. Everyone knows they have lost their touch. Everyone knows they are not the smart players in the smart phone market. Everyone knows to be hyper negative. Short position is about 37% of float.  That’s hugely bullish. all large short positions must be ultimately covered.

Cash position is about 53% of market cap. When was the last time that a stock value of 53% cash disintegrated. Margins are still positive and revenues are growing. They do not need to beat Apple. They just need to prove steadily increasing revenues and profits and investors will discover it. Currently no debt as well.

This is like an option on technology. Not everyone needs to be a world-beating monolith. You just need to prove you can create shareholder wealth long-term. However at todays annual meeting do not expect any major announcements. They’ll play out some disgruntled investors and look down the road.

With this cash position watch for some acquisitions. Blackberry needs to change the air inside a lot of journalistic heads and get them focused on another narrative. Once the I-bankers start to smell the acquisition fees watch the buy recommendations come out.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

BlackBerry Bulk’s Up Board Is It Long Term or Just Window Dressing? $BBRY

Research in Motion err BlackBerry (Nasdaq:BBRY) announced the appointment of two heavyweight tel con guys.

Richard Lynch, retired executive vice president of Verizon Communications Inc., and Bert Nordberg, former chief executive of Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications.

Richard Lynch was the Chief Technology Officer for Verizon and seems to have a résumé in networks.

Bert Nordberg previous to Sony Ericsson Mobile was head of Ericsson’s Silicon Valley group.

On the surface the two seem to round out the board rather nicely. However nowhere is there a hint of customer user experience leadership. There are a lot of technology guys around. But how many are the generals in winning battles.

Time will tell of course. The newbies need to get up to speed. But it looks like BlackBerry is running out of excuses on the strategic leadership front.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on twitter@financialskepti or maybe follow his evil twin who is writing a Wall Street Murder Thriller at twitter@georgegutowski