Thanksgiving Day Trading Risks $XRT, $DJX, $SPY, $VIX, $VXX

Thanksgiving Day creates its own set of trading risks. Today Wednesday before is one of the biggest travel days. All forms of transportation are stressed and many people away from the desk. If you are at the desk to many people away from the desk to make substantive decisions.

Therefore do you trust the trading volume. Even with the plethora of mobile devices many will not be in a position to trade. The price action and volume you are looking at does not fit the norm of two standard deviations.

This will also be true on Friday with limited market participation.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

 

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Retail Season Six Days Sorter. Will Credit Cards Feel Pain $AXP, $V, $MA, $RTH, $XRT,

In a calendar fluke the time interval between Thanksgiving Day and Christmas is six days shorter. Some predict lower retail sales as there is less time to join crowds and get stressed out.

If retail sales are off will credit card processors see less volume? Interesting dilemma.

My take is Christmas will happen and plastic will ride to the rescue as shoppers will be forced into more on-line shopping because they do not have as much time to participate in herd like lemming activities at crowded stores.

Image the comfort of your own home, a favourite beverage and clicking away with abandon.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Retail Season Crash & Burn Excuses Have Started $XRT, $RTH, $M, $JCP, $COST, $SHLD, $DDS, $BBY

Retail is starting to bleed out the crash and burn reasons for this year. The latest claim is that the intervening time between Thanksgiving Day and Christmas is six days shorter there will be a negative impact.

That may be true. But Christmas comes at the same time every year. Most people have the same gift giving obligations every year. Most people have not yet learnt to curb their propensity to overspend.

What will affect retail spending is the health of the consumer and what’s left on their plastic. Retailers will continue to win and lose depending on how compelling their offerings have been. The big and many small decisions have already been made. Product is moving to store shelves as you read this. We are just waiting for the scores.

George Gutowski writes from a Caveat Emptor Perspective.

Wrapping Paper Sales Confirm Retail Sales. Do Your Own Channel Checks. $XRT, $M, $JPM, $COST, $SHLD, $TGT, $WMT

US Retail Sales 1992–2010

US Retail Sales 1992–2010 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

If the retailers had good Christmas trade they are selling lots of wrapping paper, bows and ribbons. If the sales are bad the wrapping paper is not moving. Do your own channel checks. Go to retailers and see how wrapping paper sales seem to be. If the clerk is not busy the shareholders are in a pickle.

A week before Christmas this is the sure-fire way to forecast sales.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. He has bought bags and tissue paper because he cannot wrap to save his life. follow him on twitter@financialskepti and his evil twin that writes Wall Street Murder Mysteries at twitter@georgegutowski

SEC Christmas

FBI

Image by Carsten Lorentzen via Flickr

Just thinking out loud here. But if the FBI made arrests just before Thanksgiving day, what will they do just before Christmas? The SEC wants to send signals to the stock market. Police raids are now media events. Financial news will be very slow right around Christmas.

If you are a hedge fund manager who has done particularly well can you spot the surveillance? Who is sitting in that  car parked down the street from your fancy home?

Disclosure: George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. I hold no positions in stocks mentioned in this post.