Facebook abandons #Socialmedia. Goes Olde School $FB, $TWTR, $GOOG, $YHOO, $MSFT, $LNKD

Facebook (Nasdaq:FB) launches mandatory video ads. That’s olde school television. you know when your watching a reasonably interesting show and suddenly these ads come on. Madison Ave Madmen call that Interruption Marketing. similar to tele-marketing which has annoyed tens of millions.

So where is the promise of social marketing. You know engaging the follower with relevant compelling offerings which have a high sell through rate. This is like watching the Swedish Bikini cheerleading team during a commercial break exhorting you to drink a particular beer while you are ignoring your girlfriend as you watch a very important football game. Very important to be emphasized.

Facebook will become no more powerful than network TV. Which right now is not very powerful at all.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective

Perfect Way to Screw Up Facebook Ads $FB, $GOOG, $TWTR, $LNKD, $YHOO,

Facebook (Nasdaq:FB) is poised to launch video ads for a reputed $2 million a day to reach everyone between 18-54. If they hang onto the business they will gross $730 million. hopefully without annoying the users.

Despite the fact it is free I’m pretty sure I don’t want to see the ads. So what if you go into your profile and change some of your settings. Age comes to mind. Tell em you’re over 55. This demographic apparently does not watch video’s. Change other aspects that makes it difficult for them to figure you out.

The ads will play automatically so watch for creative resistance from an ungrateful public who do not care to pay the bills for billionaire and multi-millionaire geeks working at Facebook.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Google still does not know where the chop sticks are. Is that Bullish or Achilles Heel $GOOG, $FB, TWTR, $BIDU, $YHOO

Google (Nasdaq:GOOG) is surging, charging and bulling; creating a lot of excitement. Longs and Bulls are making money. Today. Just remember while you guzzle victory’s champagne. Google still does not have China figured out. They still have not recovered  from what Beijing views as intransigence.

If they cannot establish a large foot print in China they will be missing a critical piece which others will capture. Global scale means global as in planet earth. Global does not exclude China. If Google can skate that one on side than $2,000 a share will be cheap.

Google does not know where the chop sticks are.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Facebook Insanity Continues $FB Younger Users are Getting Bored.

Facebook (Nasdaq:FB) is getting some buzz or press that younger users are fatiguing and not using the service as much. Not sure if these younger users had enough money to satisfy advertisers. So maybe that’s a good thing.

In the meantime investors need to look at a 115 PE ratio. so when you read an analysts buy recommendation underline the part that says it’s a good idea to buy a 115 PE ratio.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

StockTwits interesting boom and echo dynamic $FB, $TWTR, #stocktwits

Revealing stats as I follow clicks to this blog “Financial Skeptic”.

While posting content onto the blog, traffic first comes from Stock Twits and then from Twitter meaning the Stock Twits readers are more engaged and faster off the mark. Usually one business day later search engines drive in traffic to yesterdays posts.

So just from my own very personal but incredibly relevant experience, social media data mining from Stock Twits will be very valuable. Also if you are looking to manipulate a stock and use Stock Twits you should stick out like a sore thumb.

Couple of things to think about.

George Gutowski writes from a Caveat Emptor Perspective.

Yelp Yapped. Hey Twitter would You do This? $YELP $FB $YELP #socialmedia

OK so for some very early Christmas shopping I’m thinking maybe my son and so-in-law would like some nice leather jackets. Pretty cool present I’m thinking.

Get on the iPhone mobile Yelp (NYSE:YELP) app and punch it up. Get a listing of leather retailers close and far away from me. Something to work with. Not bad.

Then they serve up the recommendation and want to take me to a burritos place. Like food burritos. I’m not hungry. SWM looking for shopping solutions should not be interrupted with rather stupid recommendations. This did not enhance Yelp shareholder wealth.

Have not used Yelp for over a week now. Know what I’m saying.

However in the past week I have eaten but not burritos and still open to looking at leather jackets.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Out there somewhere somehow a men’s leather jacket salesman wants to meet with me. Can social media bring us together?  Sizes would be medium for one and XXL for the other. Must be very cool. Probably black.

Twitter Juices Itself. Valuation Increased Demand Insane $TWTR $FB $LNKD

Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) is stroking the market very well. Buzz tells investors it will be conservative. not Facebook (Nasdaq:FB) style. Valuations are oh so low. We don’t want the price to drop.

And investors click more vigorously and increased demand. Underwriters who work for Twitter and not the investing public are there to maximize return for Twitter and existing shareholders. More cash is being raised. Original stakes are now more valuable.

It was all so predictable. If it prices late Wednesday to trade Thursday they played it as long as they could and stroked the price up and up.

Remember share values are the present value of future earnings. A Buck is just a Buck. It has ultimately the same purchasing power as the next one.

George Gutowski writes from a Caveat Emptor Perspective.

Obamacare Insults Social Media. Facebook and Twitter Can Solve This $FB, $TWTR #SEO #Obamacare

Obamacare web site is seriously deficient. Most Democrats not even denying this. President Obama who is one of the most savvy social media politicians missed the power of social media and allowed the bureaucrats to build something that does not work.

The trick is to make connections. Duh. This is social medias core competency. Let Facebook (Nasdaq:FB) and Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) sort it out.

It will be cheaper and start working sooner. As soon as politicians make rules that are bureaucracy friendly any idea will fail.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Facebook will stab investors. $FB $TWTR $LNKD

Facebook (Nasdaq:FB) announces in precious few hours. Can you sense the anticipation. Great if you’re in financial media and need to create buzz. The story line is we expect some improvement in earnings per share. which is good because that’s what is needed. Improvement.

Share prices are the present value of future earnings. FB is trading at 209 times trailing earnings. Lets repeat that; 209 times. What other investment experience with a publicly traded mega cap stock has a 209 times PE ratio created more wealth.

But we are paying for future earnings. What the PE ratio is saying FB is worth 10 times the S&P valuation.

Personally if I was applying a for a Wall Street Job I would not let that one trip off my tongue. If I was a hedge fund manager or some kind of other type of money manager I would not suggest to potential investors that this is a good strategy. Who has a risk profile where 209 PE ratios are acceptable.

According to the Wall Street Journal there are no underweight or sell recommendations. Only ten say hold. 33 urge you to buy and or overweight. The stock has had a big run up in the past few months. So what is left. there are no new cheerleaders to drive in money.

In the past twelve months insiders have sold more shares than they have bought by a factor of 4:1. not bullish.

The legacy investors are all looking for a way out and will probably want to sell the moment they think the escape door is big enough.

So lay it on me with the conference call. Talk to me about on-line advertising and metrics. Yadda Yadda Yadda. But 209 trailing PE does not work. So what’s it gonna take to double and I mean really double net income and just a 100 trailing PE. Still insane.

This one will be the stalking horse that makes other companies like Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) look good.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Twitter Psychology. How investors will screw themselves. $TWTR, $FB, $LNKD, $GOOG, $MSFT, $YHOO #SEO

OK so Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) will report today after the close. This will be the very last earning announcement before they go public. You can hear the feeding frenzy coming. Surely this IPO will fare better than that last when with Facebook (Nasdaq:FB) taking a huge dump for a whole year.

Here are a few ways that investors will screw themselves with exuberant enthusiasm.

  1. They will dismiss the lack of profitability and ignore that a stock is the present value of future earnings less the present value of near term losses.
  2. They will focus on the wide-screen big picture without clear proof of concept. When TV was in its golden period, Mad Men on Madison Ave knew how to manipulate viewers. Despite hordes of SEO experts no one is turning away business because he or she is so damn good.
  3. The earnings call will try to dampen investor expectations. The market is in a frenzied state as is. Investors in their excitement will ignore management.
  4. Management may lay out what needs to be done by way of capital expenditure to finish building this marvellous money machine. investors will probably ignore this also.
  5. Twitter will not explain how they co-operate with the US Intelligence community. Other countries may sanction Twitter in the future. Significant geo-political risk exists.
  6. Twitter will stick to basics when discussing revenue growth. We all know they will acquire other companies but they will refuse to discuss it now. Twitter will need booster shots of rapidly growing earnings.
  7. Facebook can stop its financial levitation act. Now that it’s north of $50 you can sell it to pay for Twitter. How much higher can Facebook go any way.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on Twitter @financialskepti