Thanksgiving Day Trading Dangers $SPY, $VIX, $VXX, $DJX

Many investors are travelling and emotional levels are heightened. If you have reached the point of frustration where something needs to be hurt if not killed than short selling is probably not the best investment idea for you. Just go to the bar. Order an expensive cocktail. It will be expensive at the airport. Contemplate the selection of drinks available versus what is being ordered. Backtrack to the bottler, distillery, vintner or purveyor and determine if you are identifying a viable trend. Order a second round to confirm suspicions err analysis.

Then WTF just watch the news crawl and don’t do anything stupid.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Google still does not know where the chop sticks are. Is that Bullish or Achilles Heel $GOOG, $FB, TWTR, $BIDU, $YHOO

Google (Nasdaq:GOOG) is surging, charging and bulling; creating a lot of excitement. Longs and Bulls are making money. Today. Just remember while you guzzle victory’s champagne. Google still does not have China figured out. They still have not recovered  from what Beijing views as intransigence.

If they cannot establish a large foot print in China they will be missing a critical piece which others will capture. Global scale means global as in planet earth. Global does not exclude China. If Google can skate that one on side than $2,000 a share will be cheap.

Google does not know where the chop sticks are.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

StockTwits interesting boom and echo dynamic $FB, $TWTR, #stocktwits

Revealing stats as I follow clicks to this blog “Financial Skeptic”.

While posting content onto the blog, traffic first comes from Stock Twits and then from Twitter meaning the Stock Twits readers are more engaged and faster off the mark. Usually one business day later search engines drive in traffic to yesterdays posts.

So just from my own very personal but incredibly relevant experience, social media data mining from Stock Twits will be very valuable. Also if you are looking to manipulate a stock and use Stock Twits you should stick out like a sore thumb.

Couple of things to think about.

George Gutowski writes from a Caveat Emptor Perspective.

Why US Banks Suck and Canadian Banks Rock $C $JPM $BAC $WFC $TD $RY $CM $BNS $BMO $XLF

Banks are the aircraft carriers of the economy. Big strategic must not get hurt too badly. If they’re OK you’re in the game sort of. If they get hurt you’re dead meat. Check out the difference between four major US Banks and the big five Canadian Banks. In all cases the PE ratio are attractively valued and the dividend yield is superior. check out these stat:

Bank PE Dividend %

C 12.59 0.10
JPM 12.16 2.80
WFC 11.20 2.80
BAC 21.96 0.30

TD 13.10 3.60
RY 12.16 3.90
CM 10.24 4.40
BNS 12.01 3.90
BMO 10.98 4.10

Just saying.

George Gutowski writes from a Caveat Emptor Perspective.

Freaked About Interest Rates? Freak on This $VIX, VXX, $USDCAD

Stock market will tumble when quantitative easing slows or stops. Obama may want to let the Republicans do it so they can screw the big money supporters. Well maybe. So stay away from interest sensitive investments like bonds. as rates rise bonds tank. easy right.

Stay in  US Dollars because other economies will be suspect. Right well mostly. take a look at the Canucks to the north. They are dangerously close to balancing the federal budget and starting a lot of personal tax cuts. they will probably increase their version of social security but have it funded properly. they have real healthcare without stupid web sites and pay for through general taxation.

The Canadian dollar will do remarkably well because Uncle Sam still needs to borrow and increasingly high interest rates will be needed.

So if you have a few bucks take a look at Canadian denominated assets or real estate or just cash for now. Then when the tables turn so do you.

George Gutowski writes from a Caveat Emptor Perspective.

Volatility Slow Seduction. Whores must eventually be paid. $VIX, $VXX, $SPX

The market keeps going up. Opinion polls show bullish and you know what that means. Volatility such as VIX and VXX continue to decline as the market goes up and up and up.

Hush my children do not wake from this wonderful dream.

Markets go up and up and up forever. Everything goes in a straight line. Just like an out of control train speeding ever so quickly heading over the rickety bridge over a deep abyss.

The last little bit of sexual climax is the most intense and the most exciting. Eventually your partner in bed will want to be paid. Were you good? was she worth it? She” continue wit the compliments until next time.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on Twitter @financialskepti. Needless to say he is not a raging bull. Well at least not today.

Apple Door Crasher Data Seriously Flawed; Addiction Behaviour = Risk $AAPL, $GOOG, $BBRY, $MSFT

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) released new iPhones in 11 critical markets. Preliminary data indicates the expensive model is selling very well. Early adopters are driving this demand. People line up for days on end ahead of time sleeping on side walks if need be to be among the first to buy the phone. Not sure why Apple doesn’t auction them off to highest bidder and leverage the insane demand. Maybe donate money to charity or something good like that.

Do not be suckered by the addiction mentality of early adopters. Demand is a long-term equation not a one day door crasher sale. A buy or sell decision on one day data is foolish and incomplete.

A correct fundamental analysis would concentrate on how the product is being extended and if it fights off Android. Battles are fought not on one bullet. All generals know to prevail you need mass on the battle field. Speaking of which Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) Nokia and Blackberry (Nasdaq: BBRY)

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on Twitter @financialskepti

Carl Icahn Follows 5 Journalists Why These Guys? Are They Good Icahn Sources? $AAPL

Carl Icahn on the now very famous Twitter feed follows only 5 individuals all of whom are respected Business Journalists. They are

Nathan Vardi  Forbes Reporter @nathanvardi

Steven Bertoni   Forbes Associate Editor @StevenBertoni

DAVID FABER   CNBC   @davidfaber

Trish Regan Anchor & Editor at Large BloombergTV  @trish_regan

Scott Wapner   CNBC  @ScottWapnerCNBC

Communication is nuanced process. These five scribes are all reputable and work for reputable news organizations. Carl Icahn has close to 53K of followers. In aggregate these five have 86K in followers. The Forbes guys are really low. Print vs television maybe? So the relative followers on Twitter has nothing to do with it. So watch and listen and see if these guys are just newshounds or can they be played in some fashion.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. He can be followed on Twitter @financialskepti To the best of his knowledge Carl Icahn does not follow him on Twitter. But if you want you can follow Carl_C_Icahn. I’m sure every Barracuda class action lawyer is.

Blackberry $BBRY Whatz Next? What do we use for a Short Position?

Blackberry (Nasdaq:BBRY) is probably going private. Not long ago the stock was north of $60. Today it flits around $10. Blackberry became the whipping boy that everyone loved to short. You know the hedge fund guys with the long short positions. The question becomes who to pick on now for a short.

While some investors are glad this one is going off the radar a lot of traders big and small loved using the stock as the short. It will be hard to replace the sentiment that was so strongly against Blackberry and probably justified the possible buy-out.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. follow him on Twitter @financialskepti

Hush My Children. Volatility has gone away. $VIX $VXX Maniacal Laughter Follows

Hush my children volatility has gone away. It was so unwelcome and made investors so unhappy. You know everyone likes to be long and happy. Blue skies as far as we can see. Never mind about any of the following issues.

  1. Tapering off of QE and rising interest rates negatively impacting personal and corporate circumstances.
  2. Rising price of Oil which sucks money out of the economy faster than a tax.
  3. Fragile recovery with uncertain employment growth.
  4. Certain knowledge that stocks cannot continue to go up forever.
  5. Huge federal deficit distorting real economic conditions.
  6. Fewer and fewer CEO’s ready to guide earnings upwards.
  7. Lack of personal savings jeopardizing many a seniors retirement.
  8. China bubble may blow because of China Debt bubble.
  9. Europe is not stable financially. But you all knew that.
  10. Obama-care delays creating uncertain financial burdens on individuals and small businesses.
  11. Chaotic middle east. Potential allies difficult to assess.

That’s before you drill down and listen to a particular story about any one of thousands of stocks.

Hush my children. Volatility has gone away. If you hear maniacal laughter pay no heed. They’re only disturbed and must no be paid attention to.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Todays best advise is to keep your powder dry and value liquidity. Investing is a long-term process.