Apple Behaviourial Investing Conundrum Growth vs Dividend $AAPL

How many articles and blog posts about Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL). The conversations in the investor marketplace come down to two solitudes which have yet to resolve.

There are those who focus on Apple as a growth company. constant product innovations. Constant increases in revenues and profits. It’s all so damn sexy. New iPad. New iPhone. Apple is the one to beat. Samsung has a compelling offering and may take share so load up on the market place news.

Then there are articles on the dividend. The tone is how boring that Apple pays a dividend and therefore supports price because of yield. Boo Hoo how sad but that is what a dividend is supposed to do.

Apple investors are in a transitional frame of mind. Is this a sexy growth company or do the dividend investors start to pile in. The dividend investor buys because they believe in the financial metrics. The growth investor buys because they believe in the next generation of product offerings. Two very different orientations.

So what of it?

The growth investors have the greatest psychological risks. They are anchored in their perspective of Apple being exciting and growing in leaps and bounds. They will seek and receive confirmation with product announcements. When the news cycle lessens in intensity they will become discouraged and find less reason to hold or increase positions. Sell buttons get punched.

They forget what a dividend investor is anchored to which is yield. So if Apple is on your watch list as a dividend investor watch the frenzy cycle. There will be buying  opportunities disguised a growth investor sell offs.

This battle will go back and forth several times before the growth investors lose their anchor when they have lost enough of their money.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Nokia Short Seller List $NOK Apple Vulnerable? $AAPL Everyone cannot exit the room at the same time.

Image representing Nokia as depicted in CrunchBase

Image via CrunchBase

Here is a list of short sellers of Nokia (NYSE:NOK). They usually are long Apple (Nasdaq:NOK). So if Apple weakens some and Nokia gets a pulse watch for price action downward on Apple upward on Nokia. Everyone cannot leave the room at the same time.

Blue Ridge Capital: Short -1.34% Nokia

Coatue Management: Short -0.8% Nokia

Eton Park Capital: Short -0.95% Nokian Renkaat

Lone Pine Capital: Short -0.57% Nokia

Maverick Capital: Short -1.7% Nokia

Viking Global: Short -2% Nokia

Dichotomy here as some value investors have gone long the troubled handset maker due to valuation, while many GARP investors short the company due to its supposed market share problems.

Hedge funds often go long the ‘best of breed’ companies shorting the struggling companies in same sector.  When the struggling company gets better financial life signs. Value investors start to nibble and short strategy is no longer compelling. Short positions are ultimately bullish.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on twitter@financialskepti

Apple Not Today Skip Hype & Fury $AAPL $T $V $GOOG $MSFT

Apple Inc.

Apple Inc. (Photo credit: marcopako )

OK Today Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) will make the big announcement that everyone knows is coming. The 5 will come out. We all expect something very cool. We all know they probably have something more in reserve but this should be very compelling. Traders want to take positions based on this announcement. How many times do you think you can make money on major news when Apple is a master of new product enhancements and announcements.

Everyone is suddenly discovering that the new device will drive profits for many years to come. What you did not know that? So any stock price activity will be very frothy and if you like that black box high frequency approach go ahead. There is an off-chance the stock will disappoint; after all how often can a super juiced announcement work. Statistically we know they will stumble somewhere.

Apple needs huge drivers to maintain earnings. So if the 5 is huge that’s what they need. If the PE is pushed out it will be hard to justify on more than just hype about the future. So the bottom line for the skeptics is to watch the announcement; closely. But it is not enough to make a fundamental buy or sell decision.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on twitter @financialskepti


Apple Cash becomes a political target or corpgov issue? iCash solution soon or it’s dead money. $AAPL

English: The logo for Apple Computer, now Appl...

Image via Wikipedia

Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) has an $81 Billion cash hoard. This amounts to 25% of its market cap. The stock does not pay a dividend. Everyone clearly agrees that they have enough for a robust R&D effort. This ensures that they can beat up any direct competitor and/or buy up smart ideas while they are still small.

The cash issue becomes a governance question. This is shareholder money with no clear purpose. Shareholders to date have been delighted with iPhones and iPads. But lets face it, the market is not going to let this dead money stick around on the balance sheet forever.

Apple executives have a big problem. They are good at technology but are they good at investing? Apple does not have a track record investing money. They have bought a few things here and there to augment their technology. But it stops there.

The question also becomes political. Apple is global. The cash most likely is spread out in bank accounts around the world. Uncle Sam has a perverse habit of taxing cash as it comes into the United States. So you will understand the reticence of some executives to repatriate profits. Democrats want and need to tax. Will politicians help hurt Apple.

Investors will be clamouring. IRS will be salivating. Politicians will be hiding. Apple executives will be confused. The public will read about the problem on their iPads thereby creating more profit.

Apple needs to pick a direction with the cash and develop a strategic plan. The problem is much more complex than just a little bit of dividend yield. So far they have no game.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Does Carl Icahn use a Blackberry $RIMM #carlicahn #iPhone

Image representing Research In Motion as depic...

Image via CrunchBase

Carl Icahn has become interested in Research in Motion (Nasdaq:RIMM). You see he thinks management needs a shake up and he is just the guy to do it. So far Carl Icahn does not impress anybody as a technology guru with the solution. He rides in, trash talks the management and then extracts some kind of action which usually shakes him off while putting more money into Carl Icahn’s pocket. 

The supposition is that the target needs Carl Icahn to stimulate wealth creation behaviour. OK so Blackberry has been surpassed by iPhone, nothing new there. Does Carl Icahn even use a Blackberry? Has he ever used one? We know he is 75 or so so it’s a very good question.

On a user experience level what does Carl Icahn understand about the iPhone, Blackberry or Smart Phones in general. The Motorola experience did not broaden his base of knowledge. It was all about the hack and chop. If Steve Jobs sat down with Carl Icahn would the two be able to communicate. Probably not.

Apple greater than Exxon? We kill for oil. iPad meh. $aapl $XOM #ipad

Image representing iPhone as depicted in Crunc...

Image via CrunchBase

Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) market cap is challenging Exxon’s. (NYSE:XOM) Many are declaring a new world order. We go to war over oil. We allow our young people to die in strange lands for oil. We refuse to conserve oil. We want to drive not push our cars. iPad or iPhone if they malfunction meh live goes on. Usually something with Android.

Careful about conclusions based on comparative market caps.

Disclosure: George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. I have no positions in any stocks mentioned in this post. I have no plans to initiate new positions within the next 72 hours.

iPhone predicts stock market #AAPL $YHOO #iPhone #stocks

Image representing iPhone as depicted in Crunc...

Image via CrunchBase

I check my iPhone app for stock markets. You know the pre-loaded one that Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) gets from Yahoo (Nasdaq:YHOO). I just wanted a quick peak while I’m on my way to do something else. Its 12:44 ET and the graph is updating to 13:15ET. This is supposed to be a 20 minute delay. Or is my iPhone screwed up. Tim Cook please investigate immediately.

Disclosure: George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. I do follow the stock market and value accurate information. I have no positions in any stocks mentioned in this post. I have no intentions of initiating new positions within the next 72 hours. I am currently over-anxious about my iPhone.