Will Egypt Invade Libya?

(en) Libya Location (he) מיקום לוב

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The Muslim/Arab/Oil world is experiencing cataclysmic change. Well if you are a ruling dictator it looks bad. In the meantime investors can trade OIL an ETN that trades on NYSE ARCA (NYSE ARCA: OIL) Trading seems fear based. The Saudi’s say do not worry we will sell oil and stabilize Western Oil addiction. Like I said the trading seems fear based.

What changes can you foresee? Are we just changing dictators? Will the new power élite understand they need to do things differently?

Libya accounts for 2-3% of known oil reserves. They have a population of of some 3.5 million. No accurate census data is available.

Egypt accounts for no significant oil reserves. The revenue of the Suez Canal is maxed. The Egyptian population stand at 81-82 million.

Libyan oil revenues would go a long way to help Egyptian rulers solve many many many problems. Egypt has learned to co-operate with the west. Libya has been nothing but a problem for the West.

A population of over 80 million can crush the Libyan 3.5 million and present the west with stability. As Moammar Gadhafi becomes increasingly more bizarre and irresponsible the west may even suggest the invasion to Egypt.

Disclsoure: “George Gutowski” writes from a “caveat emptor perspective”. I hold no positions in any stocks mentioned in this post. I have no plans to initiate new positions withing the next 72 hours.