President Obama Bear Case Scenario with Comrade Putin $BIK, $BKF, $EEB, $QQQ, $DJX, $SPX, $XLF, $SPY

President Obama is scrambling for options over Crimea. Some long-term cards look good. Stop importing energy from Russia. But Europe must do this. Basically Putin is a KGB bully who has never lost a fight in the school yard and therefore is prone to miscalculation.

The G8 meeting in Sochi is all but dead. Can you imagine the other G7 leaders showing up and saying what they are thinking. Putin doesn’t need that but would find it hard to walk out in his own country.

Europe will be at the forefront of effective trade sanctions against Russia. North America and other oil rich countries will need to increase production to compensate for Russian supply. I believe this will happen in a stealthy fashion and the Russians will one day wake up to pathetic export revenues.

The rest of the world will need to increase imports from Europe to compensate. So maybe the prize of a Benz or Beemer will come down some?

Obama’s short-term problem is getting respect from Putin. Probably through fear as Putin in a bully mentality only respects raw power. Obama needs to overcome the Edward Snowdon issue. Obama needs to overcome the Syria and Chemical weapons trump card that Putin played.

Obama needs a way to kick Putin in the balls so that he is gasping for air and no one dares come to his assistance.

That means financial consequences so that Russia cannot move money around on the world stage and further their agenda. Buckle up if Obama is going to redeem himself, and he has to, this will be a rumble to remember.

The Berlin Air Lift was successful.

George  Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Social Media Defines Success vs Failure Obama vs Romney $TWIT $FB

Barack Obama Text Message Marketing Screenshot 1

Barack Obama Text Message Marketing Screenshot 1 (Photo credit: DavidErickson)

Social media cannot be ignored. Obama won by a few whiskers over Romney. you can look at all the metrics you want but….Obama was simply much more powerful than Romney with over 20 million followers. Obama lead Romney by 10:1. So if you are in a tight race your social media strategy needs to be strong.

Lesson: Most businesses face election day everyday 24/7. If your social media strategy is weak you will not be number one.

End of lesson.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on twitter@financialskepti

Twitter Power Obama vs Romney Is Social Media Validated. $TWIT $FB #obama #romney #twitter #socialmedia

Image representing Twitter as depicted in Crun...

Image via CrunchBase

Politics=money this week. Sure the stock market is trading but everyone is focused on the elections. The election also will help validate the use of social media. Or maybe not. We will know Late Tuesday or early Wednesday who the next tenant of the Whitehouse will be.

But in the meantime let’s look at some social media Twitter stats. Last election Obama effectively used Twitter and won the Whitehouse. Richard Nixon lost to JFK because team JFK understood television better. Here are some Twitter stats to ponder.

Tweets

@barackobama 7713

@mittromney 1333

Power/Influence rating out of some 13.1 Million

@barackobama  17,284

@mittromney 90,152

Followers

@barackobama 21,705,072

@mittromney 1,675,552

Following

@barackobama 670,882

@mittromney 274

Yet the race is considered to be very closely contested. In fact a dead heat in many swing states. The twitter numbers are all in the super star category.

If Obama wins he can clearly state he had better twitter numbers.

If Romney wins he can clearly state he overcame a twitter disadvantage. Social media’s struggle will be to engage a large segment of the US population who does not use twitter but does vote for the most powerful man in the world. Will this commercialize and monetize. most people who are engaged in the presidential election have a few bucks to spend and attract the attention of marketers.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on @financialskepti

Obama’s Ambush – S&P Investigated by DOJ – McGraw Hill a political football $MHP

McGraw-Hill's 1990s logo

Image via Wikipedia

Obama and the O Boys as they are starting to be called do not see the ambush. Surprising for a wily bunch of political operators. DOJ is now investigating S&P downgrade of USA credit risk. Clearly political intimidation. Obama is only now realizing how important Wall Street and the capital markets are to a healthy democracy. Emphasis on the healthy.

Lets just leave aside that the head guy at McGraw Hill (NYSE:MHP) is clearly a Republican. [red flag in front of democrat bull maybe] but what is the DOJ going to find out. Credit ratings are opinions. S&P has a AA+ opinion on American. This opinion is shared by many astute investors. Many world leaders have also called America on their over spending including the largest external creditor China.

So the DOJ dives in and investigates. Politically now what. If they come back and find no wrong doings or no problems Obama has egg on his face as he heads into a re-election. Not a good outcome.

If DOJ comes back with a big list of wrong doings it will look like a witch hunt and regulation by way of rear view mirror. all with a very bad political odor to it. A serious damnation of S&P will only underscore SEC ineptitude, with a back draft to the White House.

If DOJ comes back with some small stuff and tries to shut it down politically the Republicans will small blood in the water and counter-attack claiming White House manipulation and the left-wing intrusiveness of the Obama administration and then they will throw in that’s partly why we have a jobs crisis. Lots of little men in the street will buy into that one again just before the 2012 re-election campaign.

It normally is very difficult to dislodge an incumbent president. But Obama just threw away some political cards. If you have the entire investment class right down to small investors and retirees depending on bond and dividend income losing faith Obama’s numbers will not add up properly. at least not for a re-election.

By the way the guys trying to take over McGraw Hill could not possibly have forecasted the political ramifications. They could soldier on with their bid. But if they back down McGraw Hill can point his finger at the White House and say Obama cost us money, big money.

The two take over partners are Ontario Teachers Pension Fund which is controlled in Canada and will ignore Obama politics and maybe even report any pressures. The other partner is Jana Partners who describe themselves as event driven. Not sure where they are politically but if you start losing big money you look for lawsuits. Why would they contribute to the democratic cause right now.

Disclosure: George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. I hold no positions in stocks mentioned in this post. I have no plans to initiate new positions within the next 72 hours. I am not politically active.