Obamacare Insults Social Media. Facebook and Twitter Can Solve This $FB, $TWTR #SEO #Obamacare

Obamacare web site is seriously deficient. Most Democrats not even denying this. President Obama who is one of the most savvy social media politicians missed the power of social media and allowed the bureaucrats to build something that does not work.

The trick is to make connections. Duh. This is social medias core competency. Let Facebook (Nasdaq:FB) and Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) sort it out.

It will be cheaper and start working sooner. As soon as politicians make rules that are bureaucracy friendly any idea will fail.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Facebook will stab investors. $FB $TWTR $LNKD

Facebook (Nasdaq:FB) announces in precious few hours. Can you sense the anticipation. Great if you’re in financial media and need to create buzz. The story line is we expect some improvement in earnings per share. which is good because that’s what is needed. Improvement.

Share prices are the present value of future earnings. FB is trading at 209 times trailing earnings. Lets repeat that; 209 times. What other investment experience with a publicly traded mega cap stock has a 209 times PE ratio created more wealth.

But we are paying for future earnings. What the PE ratio is saying FB is worth 10 times the S&P valuation.

Personally if I was applying a for a Wall Street Job I would not let that one trip off my tongue. If I was a hedge fund manager or some kind of other type of money manager I would not suggest to potential investors that this is a good strategy. Who has a risk profile where 209 PE ratios are acceptable.

According to the Wall Street Journal there are no underweight or sell recommendations. Only ten say hold. 33 urge you to buy and or overweight. The stock has had a big run up in the past few months. So what is left. there are no new cheerleaders to drive in money.

In the past twelve months insiders have sold more shares than they have bought by a factor of 4:1. not bullish.

The legacy investors are all looking for a way out and will probably want to sell the moment they think the escape door is big enough.

So lay it on me with the conference call. Talk to me about on-line advertising and metrics. Yadda Yadda Yadda. But 209 trailing PE does not work. So what’s it gonna take to double and I mean really double net income and just a 100 trailing PE. Still insane.

This one will be the stalking horse that makes other companies like Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) look good.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Twitter Psychology. How investors will screw themselves. $TWTR, $FB, $LNKD, $GOOG, $MSFT, $YHOO #SEO

OK so Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) will report today after the close. This will be the very last earning announcement before they go public. You can hear the feeding frenzy coming. Surely this IPO will fare better than that last when with Facebook (Nasdaq:FB) taking a huge dump for a whole year.

Here are a few ways that investors will screw themselves with exuberant enthusiasm.

  1. They will dismiss the lack of profitability and ignore that a stock is the present value of future earnings less the present value of near term losses.
  2. They will focus on the wide-screen big picture without clear proof of concept. When TV was in its golden period, Mad Men on Madison Ave knew how to manipulate viewers. Despite hordes of SEO experts no one is turning away business because he or she is so damn good.
  3. The earnings call will try to dampen investor expectations. The market is in a frenzied state as is. Investors in their excitement will ignore management.
  4. Management may lay out what needs to be done by way of capital expenditure to finish building this marvellous money machine. investors will probably ignore this also.
  5. Twitter will not explain how they co-operate with the US Intelligence community. Other countries may sanction Twitter in the future. Significant geo-political risk exists.
  6. Twitter will stick to basics when discussing revenue growth. We all know they will acquire other companies but they will refuse to discuss it now. Twitter will need booster shots of rapidly growing earnings.
  7. Facebook can stop its financial levitation act. Now that it’s north of $50 you can sell it to pay for Twitter. How much higher can Facebook go any way.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on Twitter @financialskepti

Twitter More Valuable than Stupid Facebook Read Smart Reasons Why $TWTR $FB $LNKD

Business Insider or BI as some know it by published an interesting piece on Twitter. Now with the recent run up of Facebook (Nasdaq:FB) and the probable IPO for Twitter (TWTR) there is lots of speculation and comparisons of the two.

Personally I find Twitter easier to use and more useful for stocks and investments. But don’t let me influence you or your choice to buy into a hot IPO which may or may not increase your wealth. But the BI article covers 106 Finance People to follow on Twitter. I don’t think there is a corresponding article for Facebook.

Here is the link to the article. Enjoy.


George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on Twitter @financialskepti

Twitter the new virgin. Can you Sleep with her? $TWIT $FB $LNKD

Twitter is coming. Twitter is coming. All hail Twitter. So probably on Nasdaq and probably $TWIT as a stock symbol. Nasdaq must redeem itself because a lot of people remember the Facebook (Nasdaq:FB) fiasco and still remember their lawyers telephone number.

The hype is not as crazy  as it was for Facebook; which in retrospect was completely unnecessary. Before everyone pretends they understand the fundamentals of Twitter and social media consider the playful activities of your favourite hedge fund. Long Twitter short Facebook. Just like Apple and Blackberry used to be. Before they both imploded. Hey that can happen you know. Stock markets are risky.

Facebook has experienced an insane run up and probably does not have the fundamentals to back it up. So correction time approaches. Twitter is like the new virgin and everyone wants to sleep with her. We’ll be tolerant for the initial stages because its new and excites us way more than Facebook.

With Facebook we have finished our post coital cigarette and are looking for the next thing.

So it’ll be Wham Bam thank you Mam.

This will be the new pairing just like chocolate and wine. Watch the long short action it’ll drive more than fundamentals for a while to come.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on Twitter @financialskepti

Secret Reason to buy JC Penney $JCP $TWIT

Last Aug 20 I blogged about relative Twitter feeds among retailers. 40 days have passed. JCPenney (NYSE:JCP) has grown a remarkable 25.7% from 167K to 210K. The growth rate is just over a thousand followers per day seven days per week. This is remarkable for a franchise which is supposedly in the toilet. If JC Penney can do this with all the bad news and dubious publicity there is a strong underlying reason to believe in the JC Penney franchise.

Shoppers find twits from JC Penney worth following.

Liquid deep value investors would buy in about now.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. He does shop at JC Penney. Follow him on Twitter @financialskepti

Apple Door Crasher Data Seriously Flawed; Addiction Behaviour = Risk $AAPL, $GOOG, $BBRY, $MSFT

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) released new iPhones in 11 critical markets. Preliminary data indicates the expensive model is selling very well. Early adopters are driving this demand. People line up for days on end ahead of time sleeping on side walks if need be to be among the first to buy the phone. Not sure why Apple doesn’t auction them off to highest bidder and leverage the insane demand. Maybe donate money to charity or something good like that.

Do not be suckered by the addiction mentality of early adopters. Demand is a long-term equation not a one day door crasher sale. A buy or sell decision on one day data is foolish and incomplete.

A correct fundamental analysis would concentrate on how the product is being extended and if it fights off Android. Battles are fought not on one bullet. All generals know to prevail you need mass on the battle field. Speaking of which Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) Nokia and Blackberry (Nasdaq: BBRY)

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. Follow him on Twitter @financialskepti