#Russia manipulating #Commodities. Swiss Bank Accounts $OIL, $VIX, $GLD, $GAZ, $DBA, $JO, $CANE, $Weat

Popular opinion is whistling through the cemetery and saying Putin has not made up his mind on Ukraine invasion plans. Russia and Putin understand that they roil worldwide commodity markets. they are major exporters of oil, ant gas, wheat.

They don’t talk about it of course but Putin has probably assembled a loyal group of commodity traders who can hide behind shell companies in high secrecy jurisdictions and trade through numbered accounts in Switzerland and other locations.

Putin will let them know ahead of time and they can take long positions and ride the wave.. Want to bet Oil goes up when Ukraine is invaded. They are probably taking long positions as you read this blog.

As diplomatic and geo-political chaos abounds Putin will crack the whip, sell, sort, buy and margin as needed. He knows sanctions will sting so a nice cash pool in overseas secret bank accounts will be very helpful.

Putin treachery knows no bounds. At worst he will contribute to financial chaos in the west and profit from it like the Bastard that he really is.

Only the paranoid survive.

Written from a “Caveat EmptorPerspective”

Spotify. Danger Danger Poor Judgement $SPOT, #JOEROGAN,

The culture wars have shifted to the Spotify Platform. A publicly traded company specializing in music and audio. Spotify contracted Joe Rogan for his much followed Podcasts. Typical capitalist move and what you would expect from a shareholder wealth maximization process.

Problem is he is socially and politically controversial for what some say is a storm of misleading information about Covid-19 and vaccinations. The scientific community don’t believe the words that come out of his mouth. Spotify did not think about the editorial issues. They just went for ratings.

The artistic community which leans left and progressive took offence and want to leave Spotify. Artist after emboldened artist are jumping off the Spotify platform.

From a strictly investment perspective you do not want to be caught in the culture wars crossfire. But Spotify is caught. Their stock price has dropped in at least half and shareholders are not happy. Now you have artists leaving which possibly means less revenues.

Shareholder lawsuits will spring up and provide vexatious problems. Spotify has hurt shareholder wealth by not thinking through the social issues. Management will have to pay in blood.

Joe Rogan will dig in and claim freedom of speech as well as contract. He is saying he will be more careful but he cannot become bland and beige. Spotify continues death spiral.

Not exactly investment grade.

Written from a “Caveat Emptor Perspective”

#Trudeau MIA. Trucker protest flushed Canadian Leader out of Nations Capital. Where’s Waldo?

Big trucker demonstration in Ottawa Canada. Started as a trucker protest against Covid Vaxx Mandates. Almost 90% of Canadians are double vaxxed. But people are mad, annoyed, fed up, discouraged with constantly changing Covid rules and mandates. Not very enamoured with Justin Trudeau which is the main underlying reason why this protest is so strong.

So some truckers rebel and convoy from both coasts into the nations capital. Not delivering something and contributing to supply chain problems. Not a chance that this temper tantrum will achieve anything except bad feelings. Truckers asking for stupid and unlawful moves.

The protestors have been highjacked by White Right Wing Racists. A few confederate flags in the crowd. Some protestors have desecrated a Sacred War Memorial. Hopefully legal action to follow.

Protesting on weekend when you have time off is easy. But what will crowds be like on Monday.

The real question is where did they stash the Prime Minister. He was self isolating because of exposure to Covid. Apparently one of his children tested positive. The Convoy pulls in Ottawa Saturday morning and shuts down the streets in front of the Parliament buildings. The Prime Minister and family is moved to an undisclosed location.

Canada has some 600 soldiers in Latvia holding Russians off. We just increased our trainers in the Ukraine to close to 300. But we cannot defend our Prime Minister and he has to go into hiding.

Not good Justin. Canadians laughing stock in many circles. This may be his final curtain call as he is laughed off of the Canadian Political Stage.

Trudeau is a woke progressive and that’s all he knows. When replaced the progressives will not hold the sway they currently have in Canadian Politics. Suddenly lots of Canadian Businesses and Stocks will become attractive.

It’s coming. Buy Canadian.

Where’s Waldo?

Written from a “Caveat Emptor Perspective”

Inside #Putins Mind. Strategic Genius or F*ck*ng Idiot. #RUSSIA, #Ukraine, $VIX

What is Putin’s mind? It’s not entirely obvious that Putin knows. He certainly has not made any final decisions. Is he a strategic genius or an unhinged despot?

Putin has longed for the return of the Soviet Empire. Since his days as a KGB bully in East Germany he has enjoyed the alpha dominance of being a Russian leading the Warsaw Pact. Empires grow and wane. The Soviets collapsed after their defeat in Afghanistan. Putin forgets the rot that was spreading throughout the Soviet empire in any event as Muscovy fell in on itself.

He has watched with alarm as Western and NATO influence marched eastward. Absorbing even Baltics and Poland, Rumania and Bulgaria. He sees that they have all benefited economically and a western orientation is approved by the population.

Ukraine slipped out of Putins political grasp. It was an accident. He relied on weak leaders who did not have any fight in them. Now Ukraine is looking to the west and is starting to thrive. Moscow cannot deliver the goods and fells very threatened.

So something needs to be done if you are Putin. He is a very calculating and quite careful. Wiley as a cat. Thinking a few steps ahead. He is used to dealing from a position of strength or moving so quickly you cannot catch him. Think Crimea, Think Georgia, Think Kazakhstan.

Napoleon had a saying never interfere with the enemy when they are making a mistake. He wisely is attempting to split the west. He has Germany temporarily flummoxed. Germany has sold their souls for Russian Gas. The Greens have successfully mismanaged the German energy landscape. Merkel foolishly curtailed nuclear power after Fujishima melt down. Now its either Russian Gas or God Forbid dirty coal.

Lenin had a term for insurrectionists. Useful idiots. Who will do a lot of heavy lifting and then find themselves irrelevant. Winter is going away day by day. The longer Putin takes, the less his hold on Germany and Europe. He must know by now if he invades Ukraine he will lose Nord Stream II. He has slowed deliveries which are partially offset by LNG deliveries. This is costing him money. Germany has no LNG offload capacity. They really were idiots. So far a stand off without resolution. But Germany is not standing up to brute force or the threat of it.

Sweden and Finland have traditionally been neutral but very friendly with Europe, NATO and the West. They are now openly considering membership. Putin may have miscalculated assuming their neutrality would continue. Finland kicked Russia’s ass in WW2. Russia’s may still remember.

Russia can continue to rely on cyber warfare and disrupt economies in the west. Very cheap for Russia. Hard to prove. They are rather good at it and it has been increasingly disruptive. Putin with his smirk likes his chances. The West is developing cyber warfare capability and making counter strikes so its not entirely one sided.

Putin will almost certainly ratchet up the energy war and embargo certain western countries curtailing oil and natural gas exports. Immediately this will dramatically reduce Russian Revenues. The West will scramble and experience pain.

The West can also bottle up Russian oil exports in the Danish Straights and the Dardanelles. This will further reduce revenues to Russia and hurt Russia’s friends. Venezuela is not in a position to replace these volumes. However the chaos in the west continues much to Putin’s delight. He may start to feel brilliant and powerful. His henchmen emboldened.

Putin may feel that sanctions will not be effective. He can always rely on Beijing to help out. He is selling natural gas and oil to China. They have lots of American currency and can pick up a few things in the free market that Russia cannot source for itself.

Russia has been preparing for sanctions for a long time. They have huge reserves of foreign currency thanks to energy sales. They have one of the worlds largest stock piles of Gold. Quite frankly Putin does not care if your children are not wearing the latest running shoe even if it is made in China.

So he invades and drives into Ukraine. Achieves some success. But the Ukrainian army is now well trained, well equipped and probably better motivated than Russian conscripts. There will be body bags. Russian mothers will eventually figure this out. Sentiment against Putin grows. Perhaps he will lose his grip on power.

China will be dealing with Covid outbreaks. Karma is a bitch. This will limit their ability to help. North Korea will continue to be annoying with missile launches. They will push it too far. Japan will probably take them out when China is weakened. More Russian body bags in Ukraine.

Russia will lose or cede control over large portions of Siberia to China which is what China wanted in the first place. Afghan losses destroyed the last Soviet Empire. Ukrainian losses will weaken the current house of cards.

Putin is driven by Hubris. He is in his 70’s and wants to leave a glorious legacy. He is calculating but did not count on Western Resilience which he has not observed in the past. If anything he has hardened the Ukraine into a diamond; consolidated western resolve and rebirthed the need for a strong NATO.

Belarus will throw in with the West. You can tell its population does not hold truck with the old style leadership. Will it go so far as their retreating from Kaliningrad. This is the old Prussia which Stalin won by force of arms and currently is the home of the Baltic Fleet. Russian navy will not be as powerful in any event.

Lots to chew on. But it will be Russian bodybags that determine outcomes. The Russian people have no appetite for empire.

Written from a “Caveat Emptor Perspective”

#Zelensky Acute Dilemma. Talk through your hat. Keep Population Calm. Accept lethal aide. Get ready for punch in the gut. #Ukraine, #Russia, $VIX, $IAU, #GOLD,

Zelensky has a growing Dilemma. How to keep population calm and prevent chaos which would invite the Russians to save them. Yes they have seen this level of Russian forces before. But Put is asking for a few extra items that are completely unacceptable to the West, NATO and America. This has never happened before. Ukraine has no control over many of the pieces.

Kyiv (pop 3M) is just a few days drive for a Russian Tank. They have the gas. Their second largest city Kharkiv (pop 1.5M) is 40 Kilometres from the Russian Border. Maybe two days drive by a slow Russian Tank. Thats close to 10% of Ukrainian population.

Zelensky knows he does not have military superiority. Not even parity. He has taken in large amounts of lethal weapons with Western Troops feverishly training Ukrainians on their best uses. This will help if the shooting starts.

He has some 800,000 reservists. If he calls them up the population knows its bad. Putin will most likely accelerate before reservists can be effectively deployed. Western Media is very light on reporting of the capabilities of reservists much less the regular Ukrainian Army. This is not the Israeli Army where reservists are better experienced than active duty personal.

While Ukrainian civilians are preparing go bags you do not see the population preparing barriers. No overturned street cars, blown bridges, felled trees. There will almost certainly be a surge of refugees trying to enter Poland, Hungary, Moldavia, or Slovakia. Crossing the Black Sea to Turkey will be impossible. Roads will become clogged. Russians as the Nazis did in WW2 will ignore refugees and use them to block Ukrainian forces.

Zelensky is playing it cool and so far his population is following. They have too. In the meantime other than pictures of lethal aid arriving there is no public information on what the Ukrainian Army is doing. This is good. Russia is blustering and any counter bluster will only encourage Russian bellicosity.

When you are a target its good to get small and skinny for as long as possible. In the meantime you do rely on American and NATO satellite imagery.

Written from a “Caveat Emptor Perspective”

#Russian Blitzkrieg Maybe. #Ukraine, #Zelensky $VIX, $IAU, $OIL

American WW2 General Omar Bradley is famous for a quote stating Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics. Military forces are by their nature parasitical. They produce nothing economically. They consume voraciously. How many armies have became marauding bands looting and pillaging. Navies have turned to piracy. Some sailors were rather good at it.

Commentary about the Russian invading hordes almost exclusively focuses on tanks, armoured vehicles, naval vessels, troop strength. Aerial and satellite photography keeps showing enormous parking lots with vehicles, nearby tents supposedly makeshift barracks for waiting soldiers. Where are the latrines BTW.

Maybe the CIA and Military Intelligence are tracking the supply situation and just not talking about it. Maybe the Russians are trying to scare everyone with the big scary tanks. Probably to both.

In Afghanistan the last time the Russian Army mounted up to any degree there were some questions. The Russian army struggled with keeping their soldiers clean with regular showers, soap and a clean dry towel. Not saying the same is gonna happen again. But?

Armies on the move need logistical tails that follow them. Fuel in copious quantities, ammo to match and food particularly hot food in the winter would be a nice touch. Can Stalin’s grand children come up with the goods.

The Battle of the Bulge was a total gamble where the Nazi’s need to reach American fuel dumps. They didn’t bring their own because they didn’t have any. Good thing Karl Malden figured that one out.

Ukrainians don’t have a Karl Malden. Russians are not as deficient in supplies. But much of warfare is not gun on gun. It’s destroying supplies, degrading capabilities and stealing the other guy’s lunch whenever possible. Then you go at it.

Don’t believe it. Check out Gulf war. Before ground troops moved the rear area was pummelled. They they paid attention to the front lines.

Russians are big, bad and scary. But can they move supplies and keep their troops well fed and well supplied. We’ll see. They’ve never done it on this scale before.

Written from a “Caveat Emptor Perspective.”

$OIL will ping pong violently when #Russia invades #Ukraine

Putin will use more than just tanks and rockets when they invade the Ukraine. Russia exports approximately 7 million barrels a day. There is a reason why there is an OPEC + and it speaks Russian. He is interested in weakening the West and raising the stature of Russia on the world stage.

Yes he earns considerable foreign exchange from the sale of oil and natural gas. But he has stock piled this cash and keeping it for a rainy day.

If the west expels them from Swift they will not be able to collect revenues from Oil and Natural Gas sales. So they will stop. Some countries will be able to get around it. Switzerland provides a wonderful and shadowy platform to make payments when you do not want to have too much information.

Putin will at a minimum impose selective embargoes and watch the western world turn and twist with much delight. This will be a softening up to create confusion and chaos. Germany gets 40% of their natural gas from Russia. The sweater business should be pretty good this year. America, Qatar and perhaps others will send LNG but can they replace Russia at the snap of the fingers.

Poland has wisely cut a deal with the Saudi’s and will now get 50% of their oil from the House of Saud. What about the rest.

The West will have energy price shocks with huge volatility. Putin embargoes. The west counter embargoes. Perceptions of shortages. Probable gluts in certain parts of the world. Storage space runs short. Oil tankers just ride offshore for weeks at a time. Maybe longer.

Risk premiums will soar. Prices will ping pong up and down and around the tree and down the rabbit hole. On balance the secular trend will be for energy to increase in value. But for the brave and foolhardy short term trading opportunities will abound. More than one trader or trading house will blow their brains out and be out of the game for ever.

Look for local drilling to shoot up to the moon. Any local supply will be highly values. Pipelines will not be able to keep up and rail with all its dangers will be pressed into service.

Putin will be watching carefully. Remember the Colonial Pipelines Cyber Attack. That was just the warm up round. The economies of the western world will slow. Fed Reserve will be even more useless than they are now. When he wrestles western economies to the ground he will move into the Ukraine gambling that the west wont care anymore and let him in. He will be hoping to recover as the West picks itself up.

Written from a “Caveat Emptor Perspective”

#Canada awash in #Natgas but cannot sell to #Europe. #LNG, $OIL #Russia, #Ukraine

Most Canadians are aware that Alberta the Texas of Canada is awash in gas ready to go. Given the gas shortages in Europe they could be exporting and making many fortunes over. Perhaps reducing their deficit and repaying a tremendous public debt.

Alberta has long been trying to bring more gas to market. It is landlocked and has no natural access to tidewater.

While Europe shivers it should be pointed out that the province of Quebec arguing “Green” has stymied any pipeline running through their province and eventually blocking Alberta Gas from lucrative markets off the Atlantic coast.

If Alberta had not been blocked …Well lets put it this way if Europe had access the Canadian Gas there probably would not be any Russian pipelines blackmailing Europe.

Canada a G7 country would have had enough wealth to build many hospitals, schools, miles of highway, bridges, and any other infrastructure you care to imagine.

Quebec has the reputation in Canada of being entrant terrible and has been intransigent in Canadian Politics blackmailing the rest of the country. Quebec is blessed with huge amounts of Hydro Electric resources. They export to the US. But it is clean and green. They are very sanctimonious about their good fortune and have no public sympathy for Europe.

Given Global Warming there is a possibility of LNG exports through Port Churchill which sits on Hudson Bay. But the port would have to be rebuilt and a pipeline built from Albert across Saskatchewan into Manitoba. Politically feasible in those jurisdictions.

This all takes time. Also ports are controlled by the federal government. Currently the Liberal ruling party is very Woke and Green so there is no will to help Europe.

Canada and Quebec sits snuggly fretting over the Ukrainian Crisis when they actually help create energy insecurity in Europe. Canada part of NATO has troops in Latvia as a protective force and trainers in Ukraine helping standup the Ukrainian Army. They may shed blood needlessly.

Written from a “Caveat Emptor Perspective”

Mother of all Interest Rate Forecasts. $VIX, $GLD, $IVOL, $PFIX, $EMBH

This is the “Mother of All Interest Rate Forecasts”. The Fed has promised us that rates will start to go up. They never get it wrong, right? Goldman came out with the four rate hike scenario. Pundits are so eager to beat Goldman some are now saying Five (5) as January finishes with us. Only eleven months left.

Here is the mother prediction. The “Fed” will engage in an form of sadistic torture and drip out regular perhaps weekly increases of interest rates. The economy will be tied to an uncomfortable slab and the drip will land on our foreheads. Drip Drip and Drip.

Then to torture us more. Drips will be randomly curtailed. Drips ( you’re reading interest rates right) will also be sped up. Two per week perhaps. The drip size will be modulated for maximum discomfort. That means some increases will be larger than others. Perverse psych will be applied and the economies forehead will be patted dry for short periods of time and then allowed to get wet again.

So maybe 45-48 rate increases are possible. Throw in a few rate reductions just to play some mind games.

So there is the mother of all interest rate predictions. Unbeatable and probably totally useless. Just wanted to get ahead of all the pundits who are playing with us.

I usually write from a “Caveat Emptor Perspective” but this time I think I just pulled this out of my ass. Just like the interest rate pundits.

Motels And Hotels will be secret sauce for #EV Charging. #TSLA, $HLT, $MAR, $IHG, $H, $TRYP, $BEDZ, $OIL

EV charging stations will need to proliferate like mushrooms after a rainstorm. People will need and want to use their brand new EV. Status symbol you know. If you are travelling that means a hotel stay somewhere.

New to the area? Where are these EV charging stations? I don’t really know my way around. But I do know how to get to my hotel. My car can charge overnight when I’m not using it.

The best part will be that hotels can now charge you for another service where they were normally excluded. They can fuel your car. Hotels will be able to buy electricity in bulk and dole it out customer by customer. Just like expensive drinks at the bar. That mini bar can only go so far and then the CFO is bored. Parking fees can be bundled in all sorts of ways to confuse customers and maximize shareholder wealth.

Hotels refurb routinely something like once every five years. EV charging stations will become just a part of the capex. You know what come use our restaurant and charge your car at the same time if you are a local.

You have to charge your car. You do not need to buy a beer at the lobby bar. Another revenue stream for hotels with next to no labour or food and beverage costs. Profit still driven by occupancy levels.

Range anxiety diminishes. Damn this is a good idea.

Written from a “Caveat Emptor Perspective”