Time-Warner Cable Bear Case Scenario $TWC, $CMCSA, $NFLX

Cable Snipping is increasing. Cable is a high fixed cost business. How much longer until the tipping point?

Many content providers such a Netflix, Hulu and perhaps others yet to be developed only require high speed internet. TWC as a brand may become irrelevant.

Customer Service still lags major competitors. They seem stuck in the muck.

Wireless offerings are not fully developed and easily beaten in the market place. Fixed line mentality resigns supreme.

Existing lines of business are eroding. Telephone land lines are disappearing. Telephone companies are stealing internet customers. Margins are shrinking.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Time-Warner Cable Bull Case Scenario $TWC, $CMCSA

Time-Warner like most cable operations has a great mix of copper and coaxial cable which will bring in voice, text, data, streaming and cash flow.

Local Scale in Los Angeles has allowed TWC to carve out lucrative deals with Lakers and Dodgers.

As one of the three biggest pay TV operators TWC can carve out preferential content deals in those situations where content needs to be peddled.

Local monopoly power will still be valuable for a long time to come.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Tesla Motors Bear Case Scenario $TSLA, $CARZ

Tesla has shown the way and competition will be fierce.

Electric cars need a major grid. Many electricity utilities are simply unprepared or unwilling to support.

The dealer community for internal combustion engines is politically powerful and very short sighted. Tesla needs to acquire political heft to counter the ultra-provincial thinking.

New technologies are not slam dunks. There will be pot holes along the way. Maybe even sink holes.

Tesla has a market cap of some $28 Billion compare to Ford at $70 Billion or GM at $55 Billion. While the Tesla narrative looks great, is it priced properly? By the way share price is supposed to represent the future value of earnings.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Tesla Motors Bull Case Scenario $TSLA, $CARZ

Tesla is the disruptive power of the automotive space. They have no ties or nostalgia to the internal combustion engine. Everyone is excited by Tesla.

The planet simply must go Green or choke to death. Tesla has the solution for the biggest polluter which is the family car.

Tesla is so sexy that politicians will line up with lucrative incentives to induce manufacturing and development. This will reduce Tesla’s capital costs.

Tesla does not have unsold inventory which needs special incentives.

Tesla is a thought leader in the automotive field. Everyone else is doing market research to figure out what colour is hot.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective. 

LinkedIn Bear Case Scenario $LNKD, $SOCL, $FB

Very large investments in areas that have nothing to do with career search may prove unprofitable which will lower return on capital and distract management.

The social media model is still early stages. Someone has to blow themselves up and LinkedIn is as likely a candidate as anyone else.

LinkedIn is the most successful social media offering at present. Can they fight off competition and me-too offerings.

Viadeo is larger in the Chinese market. They may acquire bulk and scale which an English centric LinkedIn cannot achieve.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

LinkedIn Bull Case Scenario $LNKD, $SOCL, $FB

LinkedIn has over 290 million professional users and growing. The membership is a very focused metric which most career oriented types need. Getting a well paying job.

As they open their platform to new applications manufacturers err developers; revenues will grow and new products will be introduced.

Facebook has had more publicity but LinkedIn has better metrics on their users. Facebook whatever and I like cupcakes. LinkedIn identifies salary ranges, education, propensities and other actionable digital intelligence.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bear Case Scenario for $YELP, $SOCL, $GOOG

Yelp deals on a local basis. How much profit can you squeeze from recommendations for small local businesses. Not much.

Yelp needs to acquire new business, new reviewers and new users every day. This is very cumbersome and time consuming.

It’s very easy to get distracted as the executive tries to hit homeruns.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.