Bear Case Scenario for $YELP, $SOCL, $GOOG

Yelp deals on a local basis. How much profit can you squeeze from recommendations for small local businesses. Not much.

Yelp needs to acquire new business, new reviewers and new users every day. This is very cumbersome and time consuming.

It’s very easy to get distracted as the executive tries to hit homeruns.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Bull Case Scenario for Yelp $YELP, $SOCL, $GOOG

Yelp has become the industry standard for searching reviews on local businesses. Who does not have a Yelp App on their smartphone or tablet.

Very few decisions are made without checking on Yelp. No other retail real estate can come close to this kind of power

As Yelp becomes more powerful more business of all descriptions will come flowing in. Tipping point concept.

 

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Agnico-Eagle Bear Case Scenario $AEM, $GLD

Agnico-Eagle is about to report earnings. Here is the Bear Case Scenario

New mines exhibit higher production costs than the original flagship mine LaRonde. Resulting in newer mines coming on line  deteriorating the firm’s cost position (on a byproduct basis) closer to the industry average.

Challenges of operating in the extreme remoteness and cold of the Canadian Arctic are leading to lower-than-expected gold production and significant cost inflation at the firm’s Meadowbank mine. Surprise this is the Artic.

Investors can always by-pass the corporate exposure and just buy the commodity.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

Agnico-Eagle Bull Case Scenario $AEM, $GLD

Agnico-Eagle is about to report earnings. Here is the Bull Case Scenario

Agnico-Eagle has achieved a very high growth rate in the past half-decade or so. Starting at roughly 230,000 ounces in 2007 to just under 1.1 million ounces in 2013.

Producing assets are in the relatively stable and mining-friendly countries of Canada, Finland, and Mexico. Next to no geo-political risk baked in.

Gold companies tend to be countercyclical. They also provide an excellent hedge to inflation risk. Now if we can only figure out if we are in cycle and where is inflation really heading.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

 

Bear Case Scenario for Yamana $AUY, $GLD

Investors may want to skip the corporate exposures and either buy or short the commodity directly.

Yamana faces execution risk and the possibility of delays as a number of development projects are forecast to drive the company’s production growth.

Yamana historically has deployed massive equity raises to fund expansion projects and acquisitions.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

 

Bull Case Scenario for Yamana $AUY, $GLD

Yamana is about to release earnings. Ponder the Bull Case Scenario:

Yamana has a development pipeline that should help it reach its longer-term objective of sustainable production between 1.5 million and 1.7 million gold equivalent ounces.

Yamana enjoys one of the lowest cash operating costs in the gold mining industry.

Gold companies tend to be countercyclical. They also provide an excellent hedge to inflation risk.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.

 

Bull Case Scenario for Barrick Gold $ABX, $GLD,

Barrick’s five core gold mines have a below industry average cost structure.

Ongoing portfolio optimization will allow the company to focus on the best-performing assets, reduce capital expenditures, and monetize noncore mines.

Gold companies tend not to follow general economic cycles. They can also provide a hedge to inflation risk.

George Gutowski writes from a caveat emptor perspective.